A High-Stakes Week in the Ukraine War: Escalation on All Fronts
This week marked a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia as the war surpassed 1,000 days. Western nations doubled down on their support for Kyiv, delivering powerful new weapons, while Moscow issued its most direct nuclear threats yet. Here’s how these events unfolded and what they might mean for the future.
The West’s Game-Changing Support
On Sunday night, reports surfaced that outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden had greenlit a dramatic shift in Washington’s policy by allowing Ukraine to use American-made ATACMS missiles to strike targets inside Russia.
Within hours, Ukraine unleashed a barrage of these long-range missiles on Russia’s Bryansk region. Conflicting accounts emerged about the scale of the attack: Moscow claimed six missiles were fired, with five intercepted, while U.S. officials stated eight were launched, with two intercepted.
Regardless of the numbers, this was a watershed moment. For the first time, U.S.-supplied missiles struck Russian soil.
The week didn’t end there. On Wednesday, Ukraine launched British Storm Shadow missiles at targets in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces now control an estimated 600 square kilometers of Russian territory. Adding to the pressure, Biden later approved the deployment of controversial anti-personnel landmines to Ukraine’s arsenal. These weapons, although divisive, are seen as vital for slowing Russian advances along the eastern front.
This trio of decisions sends a clear message: Western commitment to Ukraine’s defense is not waning, even as the conflict enters its fourth year.
Moscow’s Nuclear Warnings Intensify
As Western support for Kyiv ramped up, the Kremlin escalated its rhetoric and actions. On Tuesday, the 1,000th day of the war, Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. These revisions lower the threshold for a nuclear response, stating that any attack from a non-nuclear nation, if supported by a nuclear power, would be treated as an assault on Russia itself.
On Thursday, Russia fired a new hypersonic missile, the “Oreshnik,” at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Putin claimed the missile, capable of traveling ten times the speed of sound, could bypass any defense system—a veiled reminder of its potential as a nuclear delivery vehicle.
While such actions once caused alarm, Western nations appear increasingly unfazed by Putin’s nuclear brinkmanship. Observers suggest that Beijing’s influence plays a key role. China, now an essential partner for Russia amidst Western sanctions, would likely oppose any nuclear escalation, curbing Putin’s willingness to act on his threats.
The Growing Global Dimensions
The conflict is now drawing in players from beyond Europe. North Korea’s decision to deploy troops alongside Russian forces has added another nuclear power to the mix. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un issued his own warnings, blaming the U.S. for what he called “an unprecedented threat of nuclear war.”
Meanwhile, leaders in Europe are sounding the alarm. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared the possibility of a global conflict “serious and real,” as both the U.S. and UK deepen their involvement in the war.
A Race Against Time in Washington
This week’s rapid escalation may be tied to the political clock in the United States. With President-elect Donald Trump set to take office on January 20, the Biden administration appears determined to bolster Ukraine’s position while it still can.
Trump has vowed to end the war within 24 hours, hinting that his plan may involve territorial concessions in regions like Donbas and Crimea—something Kyiv is unlikely to accept without resistance.
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested the war could end sooner under Trump, possibly through diplomacy. Former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba was less optimistic, warning that a rushed resolution could backfire, turning Ukraine into a foreign policy quagmire akin to Afghanistan.
What’s Next?
This week may not signal the immediate escalation of the war into uncharted territory. Instead, it appears to be a maneuvering period, with both sides vying for the upper hand in any future peace talks.
As the stakes rise, one thing is clear: the outcome of this conflict will reverberate far beyond Ukraine’s borders.
