Can Kamala Harris Triumph Over Trump?
Just a day after Joe Biden declared he wouldn’t be seeking re-election, Kamala Harris is emerging as the likely Democratic nominee. However, securing the nomination is only the beginning; the real test will be defeating Donald Trump in the upcoming November election. Harris’s ascension brings new strengths and challenges for the Democrats, with her current polling showing a slight deficit to Trump, similar to Biden’s position before his announcement. However, there’s potential for these numbers to shift as the race becomes more concrete.
For now, Democrats are invigorated after weeks of doubt about Biden’s capacity to campaign effectively. Harris has received endorsements from key figures, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, suggesting a united front. Yet, the November race is expected to be tight, highlighting the deep partisan divide and widespread aversion to Trump as a candidate.
Harris’s main task will be to leverage anti-Trump sentiment, attract centrist voters in swing states, and energize a Democratic base that has recently been disheartened. Her campaign has already seen a financial boost, raising over $80 million in the first 24 hours post-Biden’s announcement, combined with nearly $100 million from Biden-Harris funds, ensuring a strong financial foundation.
Harris, at 59, deflects one of Trump’s significant attacks on Biden—his age. With Trump turning 78, Harris can position herself as a more vigorous and coherent candidate, potentially using Trump’s age against him. Moreover, she might regain support from Black voters who have drifted away from Biden, and if she can galvanize other minority and younger voters, she could replicate Obama’s winning coalition in crucial swing states.
Her past as a prosecutor, previously a drawback in the 2019 Democratic primaries, could now enhance her tough-on-crime image against Trump. Harris has also been a prominent advocate on abortion rights, an issue that has been highly motivating for Democratic voters, whereas Biden’s past ambivalence sometimes hindered his advocacy.
Despite these strengths, Harris faces significant challenges. Early in Biden’s administration, she was tasked with handling the root causes of the US-Mexico border migration crisis, a role fraught with missteps that provided fodder for conservative critics. Republicans are likely to spotlight her as the face of the administration’s unpopular immigration policies, a sensitive issue for voters in key suburban battlegrounds.
The Trump campaign is also expected to attack her prosecutorial past, juxtaposing it with Trump’s criminal justice reform record. Harris’s track record as a candidate also raises concerns; her 2016 Senate race was unchallenged in Democratic-heavy California, and her 2020 presidential campaign faltered early due to missteps and a lack of clear vision.
As a non-incumbent, Harris lacks the established voter familiarity that Biden had. This could either allow her to distance herself from unpopular aspects of Biden’s tenure or render her vulnerable to Republican efforts to paint her as inexperienced and risky. Trump, meanwhile, can position himself as a known entity.
Harris has a narrow window to make a strong first impression with voters. Any early missteps could lead to internal Democratic strife, potentially stretching to the national convention in August and resulting in either party unity behind a different candidate or significant internal discord.
As recent weeks have demonstrated, the dynamics of the presidential race can shift rapidly and decisively. Harris has earned her spot on the national stage—now, she must prove she can succeed.
