US Election Polls: Who's Leading - Harris or Trump?
As Americans prepare to vote on November 5th to decide their next president, the race has taken a dramatic turn. What began as a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump shifted in July when Biden ended his campaign, endorsing Vice-President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate.
This has led to one burning question: Will the United States elect its first female president, or will Donald Trump return for a second term? As election day draws nearer, the focus is on the polling data and how both candidates are performing.
National Polls: Who’s Ahead?
Since entering the race in late July, Kamala Harris has maintained a lead over Donald Trump in national polling averages. In the aftermath of the highly anticipated debate between the two in Pennsylvania on September 10th—watched by more than 67 million people—Harris saw her slim lead increase. Initially, she was ahead by 2.5 points on the day of the debate, but that lead grew to 3.3 points the following week.
Interestingly, this shift wasn’t entirely due to Harris gaining popularity. Trump’s numbers had been climbing steadily but dipped slightly by half a percentage point after the debate. These subtle changes are visible in polling trend charts that track how both candidates’ numbers have evolved over time.
While these national polls are helpful in understanding overall voter sentiment, they don’t tell the whole story. The U.S. presidential election operates under the electoral college system, where candidates must secure 270 of the 538 available votes, making battleground states crucial.
Battleground States: The Real Contest
The real fight comes down to the so-called battleground states, where the polls are much tighter. In the seven most contested states, only one or two percentage points separate Harris and Trump. These states, including Pennsylvania, hold significant influence due to their large share of electoral votes.
Harris’s entrance into the race significantly shifted dynamics in these key states. When Biden exited the race, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points in these battlegrounds. Since then, Harris has consistently outperformed him, showing strength in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All three were previously Democratic strongholds before Trump flipped them in 2016. Biden recaptured them in 2020, and Harris will need to do the same to secure her victory.
Although polling data is limited in some of these states, the trends favor Harris. However, the margins are slim, and polling always carries a margin of error, so it’s still anyone’s race.
How Polls Are Analyzed
The poll data used in this analysis comes from 538, a leading polling analysis platform. They compile results from multiple polling organizations, applying strict quality controls. Polls must meet transparency criteria, such as disclosing their sample size, methodology, and when they were conducted, before being included in their averages.
Can Polls Be Trusted?
Despite the data, predicting a winner remains difficult, especially in such a close race. Polls in both the 2016 and 2020 elections underestimated support for Trump. Pollsters have since worked to adjust their methodologies, but factors like voter turnout remain challenging to predict. With only a couple of points separating Harris and Trump in key states, the outcome is far from certain.
As November 5th approaches, all eyes will remain on the polls, but the real test will be who wins the key battlegrounds.
