Trump or Harris? Diplomats Brace for Change in an Uncertain World at the UN General Assembly
The annual United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) is often described as the “Super Bowl of diplomacy,” yet this year, it feels more like a marathon. With global crises escalating at a pace not seen since World War II, the world’s leaders descended upon New York City as Lebanon teetered on the edge of collapse.
Looming in the background of all discussions is the upcoming U.S. election, which many diplomats believe could have significant consequences on the Israel-Gaza conflict. As one senior Western diplomat admitted, “No one is expecting major developments before the U.S. elections. The administration is focused on not making any moves that could influence the outcome.” However, hopes remain that the interim period following the election might present opportunities for progress, especially in Gaza.
Through conversations with diplomats from across continents, a picture emerges of a weary global community, prepared to engage with whoever assumes the U.S. presidency. “It doesn’t really matter who wins, the world is in chaos,” stated an ambassador from a South Asian country, reflecting a shared disillusionment with the state of international affairs. Despite varied rhetoric from U.S. leaders, many believe American foreign policy remains largely unchanged across administrations.
A senior Arab diplomat echoed these sentiments, acknowledging Trump’s unpredictability compared to Vice President Kamala Harris but dismissing fears that Trump would dismantle multilateral institutions. “Multilateralism is being undermined by conflicts all over the world. It’s not the responsibility of one nation or administration,” he emphasized.
At the UN, there is a sense of cautious calm about the U.S. election. “We survived Trump once before, and we can survive him again,” said a seasoned UN official. According to him, Trump’s foreign policy didn’t drastically diverge from previous Republican administrations, and should he win a second term, his initial focus is expected to be domestic.
In contrast, leaders from the Global South, such as Kenyan President William Ruto, expressed confidence in the enduring strength of their countries’ relationships with the U.S., irrespective of the election’s outcome. “The bonds of friendship between Kenya and the U.S. transcend individuals,” Ruto remarked.
However, European leaders voiced more apprehension. Concerns about Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy persist, with some fearing that another Trump term could fuel right-wing movements across Europe. “It would be a relief for most Europeans if Harris won,” one European diplomat commented, while another noted that despite preferring Harris, they felt better prepared to navigate a Trump presidency this time around.
Climate change, another critical issue at the UNGA, highlighted a more tangible difference between the candidates. Caribbean leaders, many of whom spoke at Climate Week events alongside the UN meetings, expressed concern that Trump’s return to the White House could mean a retreat from climate leadership. “The Democrats have shown a commitment to climate issues,” said a minister from the region, recalling Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord and Biden’s subsequent re-entry.
Bahamas Prime Minister Philip Davis pointed out that political shifts in the U.S. have long disrupted progress on climate action. He urged the creation of mechanisms to safeguard critical global initiatives, regardless of leadership changes.
As November 5 approaches, diplomats continue to face a barrage of global challenges, from climate disasters to political upheavals. Yet, the world watches closely as America’s next leader, whether Trump or Harris, may soon have an outsized influence on these very challenges. As one European minister put it, “I just hope it doesn’t get too weird.”
