Amid Escalating Conflict in the Middle East, Peace Feels More Elusive Than Ever
A year ago, the images were harrowing. With Israel still grappling with the aftermath of the worst terror attack in its history and Gaza reeling under relentless bombardment, it felt like the world had reached a turning point. For years, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict had largely faded from the global spotlight, only to erupt once more in a devastating fashion.
The surprise was palpable. Just a week before, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had remarked that the Middle East was “quieter than it has been in two decades.” But today, the region is engulfed in flames.
In Gaza, over 41,000 Palestinians have lost their lives. Two million Gazans have been displaced, their homes reduced to rubble. The West Bank has seen another 600 casualties, while Lebanon is witnessing its own crisis with one million displaced and over 2,000 dead. The toll is staggering, and the destruction widespread.
For Israel, the pain began on October 7, when Hamas launched its surprise attacks, killing over 1,200 people in a single day. Since then, more than 350 Israeli soldiers have perished in Gaza, while Hezbollah’s rocket fire from Lebanon has claimed around 50 more lives. The conflict has driven 200,000 Israelis from their homes near Gaza and the northern border.
As the war spread, so too did the number of nations embroiled in the fight. U.S. efforts to contain the crisis have faltered despite numerous diplomatic missions, military interventions, and even presidential visits. Rockets have flown in from Iraq and Yemen, and Israel and Iran have exchanged strikes as tensions continue to escalate. Washington’s influence in the region seems to be waning.
As the origins of the conflict become blurred amidst the ongoing violence, the lives of Gazans and Israelis alike have been overshadowed by the anticipation of further war. In Gaza, the devastation has been nearly complete, with millions displaced. Meanwhile, in Israel, families affected by the October 7 attacks feel their voices are being drowned out. Yehuda Cohen, father of hostage Nimrod Cohen, recently spoke out, criticizing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for prolonging the conflict. “He is doing everything possible to make the tragedy of October 7 seem like a minor event,” Cohen lamented.
But not all Israelis share Cohen’s view. For many, the Hamas attacks marked the beginning of a larger effort to destroy Israel. Israel’s military response—targeted assassinations, air raids, and intelligence operations—has restored some national pride. Netanyahu, whose popularity plummeted in the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, has seen his approval ratings rise. He recently declared, “There is no place in the Middle East that Israel cannot reach.”
Where is it all headed? No one seems to know. Simon Gass, former British ambassador to Iran, summed up the uncertainty, telling the BBC, “None of us know when the music will stop or where everyone will be at that moment.” The U.S. continues to engage in the region, but its role feels more like damage control than diplomatic leadership. With a presidential election just weeks away, bold moves from Washington seem unlikely.
The immediate priority is to avoid an even broader regional conflict. Israel is expected to respond to a recent Iranian missile strike, despite no Israeli casualties. Netanyahu has already vowed a severe retaliation. At the same time, he hinted at a possible regime change in Iran, telling the Iranian people, “When Iran is finally free, everything will change.”
For some, Netanyahu’s words echo the rhetoric of U.S. neoconservatives before the 2003 Iraq invasion. However, despite the perilous moment, both Israel and Iran are constrained by certain realities. While Tehran may dream of a future without Israel, it remains too weak to challenge the region’s most formidable military power. And while Israel might wish to neutralize the Iranian threat once and for all, it knows it cannot act alone.
The prospect of regime change in Iran is not on the U.S. agenda. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have no plans for such a move, and former President Donald Trump, who once came close to attacking Iran after it shot down a U.S. drone in 2019, ultimately chose restraint.
Few could have predicted that the Middle East would be in such turmoil a year ago. But in retrospect, the last 12 months have followed a grim logic, with catastrophe building upon catastrophe. With so much destruction in its wake, policy makers—and the world—are struggling to keep up.
As the war in Gaza enters its second year, any serious discussion of the region’s future seems far off. The question of what comes next for Gaza—its rebuilding and governance—has been drowned out by the drumbeat of a widening war. So too has any meaningful conversation about resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the issue at the heart of this crisis.
Perhaps diplomacy will find a way forward after Israel feels it has sufficiently weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, after Israel and Iran have had their say, and after the U.S. election. But for now, peace feels like a distant hope.
