UK's Next Chapter with the White House: Harris or Trump?
When Donald Trump clinched victory over Hillary Clinton on November 9, 2016, a stunned British minister wrote in his diary about the “vulgar insurgent” who had defied expectations. Later, former Prime Minister Theresa May expressed alarm over Trump’s unilateral decisions, like the sudden pullout of US troops from the Middle East, often without consulting allies such as the UK. The current Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, might want to take note as he braces for either another Trump presidency or a new face in Kamala Harris, both of whom would pose unique challenges to the “special relationship” between the US and the UK.
Reflecting on her time working with Trump, May, now Lady May, remarked on the unpredictability of her American counterpart. “He was an American president like no other,” she noted in her memoirs. Sir Keir is preparing to manage a similar dynamic, should Trump return to the Oval Office. Trump’s campaign has recently sparked transatlantic tensions by alleging election interference, escalating a LinkedIn post into a full-blown diplomatic spat. Starmer weighed in, dismissing the claims as “the usual stuff” in election cycles, but this latest episode signals that a Trump presidency could once again bring its share of volatility to UK-US relations.
Yet, a Harris presidency would not be without its own set of issues. The vice president has shown limited engagement with Europe and is yet to meet Sir Keir, though she’s expected to take a more conventional approach than her opponent. While a return of Trump could mean quick changes on issues like climate and trade, as well as a probable free-trade offer, Starmer’s team is cautious, knowing the terms may not favor the UK.
In the lead-up to the election, Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy have met with former President Trump and sought to smooth over old tensions. Lammy’s past remarks about Trump, labeling him a “neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath,” are a far cry from the diplomatic gestures of today. Lammy’s shift highlights the pragmatic approach Westminster is taking, preparing for any scenario the 2024 US election may deliver.
In terms of policy, Trump’s return would likely shake up longstanding issues, from climate policy and trade deals to handling the conflict in Ukraine. While Harris remains largely unknown to Starmer, he has maintained a close relationship with President Biden, meeting him in Washington and Berlin recently, which may offer a window into Harris’s approach.
One broader truth remains: America’s focus is pivoting toward Asia and China, regardless of who wins. The UK and Europe are slowly being edged out of Washington’s core priorities. Yet, Westminster will wait keenly to see which way the White House swings – and if Sir Keir might be invited early to Washington in 2025. The question lingers whether Britain will host a returning Trump or America’s first woman president on a state visit.
As the election nears, all eyes are on what’s next for the transatlantic alliance.
