How Trump's Victory Could Shift US Policies on Ukraine, the Middle East, and China
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency signals a major shift in U.S. foreign policy, with potential reverberations in Ukraine, the Middle East, and China. Trump’s “America First” doctrine suggests an era of non-interventionism and a focus on U.S. priorities, possibly leading to some of the most dramatic foreign policy changes in recent years.
Russia, Ukraine, and NATO
Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly asserted he could end the Russia-Ukraine war “in a day” by facilitating a peace deal, though he has not provided specific details. Insights from his former national security advisors suggest that Trump may propose continued arms support for Ukraine but condition it on Ukraine’s willingness to engage in peace talks. They have recommended delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership as a bargaining chip to entice Russia into negotiations.
However, Trump’s critics argue this approach might benefit Moscow at the expense of European security. Trump’s stance on NATO also remains contentious. Known for his skepticism of NATO, he has criticized Europe for depending too much on U.S. defense spending. While it’s unclear if Trump would withdraw the U.S. from NATO entirely, allies worry that his critical stance could weaken the alliance’s unity, affecting its deterrence against threats.
Middle East Strategy
In the Middle East, Trump has promised to bring “peace” to ongoing conflicts, notably between Israel and Hamas. He has claimed that his “maximum pressure” approach toward Iran would have prevented recent escalations. Trump’s previous Middle East policies heavily favored Israel, including recognizing Jerusalem as its capital and facilitating the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and certain Arab nations.
Yet, Trump’s actions alienated the Palestinians, who viewed his administration’s policies as undermining their claims to Jerusalem and hopes for a two-state solution. If re-elected, Trump would likely maintain his strong stance against Iran, potentially increasing sanctions and revisiting his previous policy of maximum pressure. However, his unpredictable approach to diplomacy in such a volatile region could yield uncertain outcomes.
Relations with China and Trade Policy
Trump’s previous administration marked China as a strategic competitor, imposing tariffs that sparked retaliatory actions from Beijing. Although Biden maintained many of these tariffs, Trump has suggested he would be even more aggressive if tensions escalated. He has hinted at implementing severe tariffs if China attempts any blockade of Taiwan, asserting that his reputation for unpredictability would deter China from making aggressive moves.
Although Trump’s approach to China focuses on economic protections, the outcome of such strategies on trade and global stability remains unpredictable. His stance may shift away from Biden’s approach of regional alliances, favoring direct actions to prioritize American interests.
Trump’s re-election marks the start of a potentially transformative phase in U.S. foreign relations. His focus on immediate U.S. interests—combined with his often bold and unpredictable strategies—could reshape the U.S. role in global affairs across multiple fronts.
