Who Are the Rebels Taking Over Syria's Second City?
In a dramatic turn of events, rebel forces launched their largest offensive in years against the Syrian government, seizing control of vast areas in Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. By Sunday, they were advancing further south towards Hama, catching government forces off guard and prompting a withdrawal from Aleppo. This offensive also triggered the first Russian airstrikes on Aleppo since 2016.
A New Front in Syria’s Turbulent Conflict
The Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) spearheaded this surprise attack. HTS, a key player in Syria’s conflict, has a long and complex history. It was initially formed in 2011 under the name Jabhat al-Nusra as an Al Qaeda affiliate. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the notorious leader of the Islamic State (IS), played a role in its early days.
Known for its effectiveness and brutal tactics, Jabhat al-Nusra quickly became one of the most formidable factions opposing President Bashar al-Assad. However, its extreme jihadist ideology often set it apart from other opposition groups, including the more moderate Free Syrian Army.
In 2016, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani publicly severed ties with Al Qaeda. The group rebranded, eventually adopting its current name after merging with other Islamist factions in 2017.
Who Controls Syria Today?
Over the past few years, Syria’s civil war seemed to have reached a stalemate. Assad’s regime retained control over most major cities, while certain regions remained outside his grasp.
In the Kurdish-majority areas of eastern Syria, self-administration has been in place since the early years of the conflict. Sporadic unrest continues in the southern regions, where the anti-Assad uprising began in 2011.
Meanwhile, remnants of IS remain a threat in Syria’s vast desert, especially during truffle hunting season when civilians venture into dangerous areas.
In the northwest province of Idlib, militant groups, including HTS, have maintained control since the height of the war. This region, home to around four million people—many displaced by the conflict—has remained a rebel stronghold, now thrust into the spotlight with HTS’s bold offensive.
The Ceasefire Unravels
For years, Idlib was a key battleground between Assad’s forces and rebel groups. A 2020 ceasefire deal brokered by Russia and Turkey brought relative calm, but the current HTS-led assault threatens to unravel that fragile peace.
President Assad’s forces, stretched thin by years of war, relied heavily on Russian airpower and Iranian-backed militias, including Hezbollah. However, recent setbacks for Hezbollah in Lebanon, coupled with intensified Israeli strikes on Iranian-linked groups in Syria, have weakened Assad’s military support.
What’s Next for HTS?
HTS has been the dominant force in Idlib, acting as the region’s de facto authority. Despite its efforts to portray itself as a legitimate local administration, the group has faced allegations of human rights abuses and bitter infighting with other factions.
After years of focusing on consolidating its power in Idlib, HTS had shown little indication of reigniting large-scale conflict. Its ambitions seemed limited to establishing an Islamic regime in Syria rather than pursuing a broader caliphate like IS once sought.
This sudden and decisive move on Aleppo suggests a shift in strategy, one that has dramatically altered the trajectory of Syria’s ongoing conflict. As the situation develops, all eyes remain on HTS and how this new chapter in Syria’s war will unfold.
