Russia’s “Meat-Grinder” Strategy Yields Gains Amid Massive Casualties
As 2024 nears its end and winter tightens its grip, Russian forces continue to make headway against Ukrainian defenders, recapturing swaths of territory. However, the human cost of these advances is staggering.
Over the course of Russia’s autumn offensives, approximately 2,350 square kilometers (907 square miles) of land have been seized in eastern Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk region. Yet, these gains have come at a devastating price.
Record-High Casualties
In November alone, Russian forces reportedly suffered 45,680 casualties—an average of 1,523 soldiers killed or wounded each day. This figure, released by the UK Ministry of Defence, marks the bloodiest month for Russia since the invasion began in February 2022.
On November 28, the toll was especially grim, with over 2,000 Russian troops lost in a single day—a record for the conflict. Estimates by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that during its autumn offensives, Russia has lost around 125,800 soldiers. For every square kilometer gained, Russia sacrifices over 50 troops.
Despite these heavy losses, Russian advances persist. A Western official, speaking anonymously, described the approach as “grinding progress at an extraordinary human cost.”
Ukraine’s Silent Struggles
While Ukraine has refrained from releasing casualty figures, Western analysts believe the intensity of the fighting is immense. Russia claims over 38,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Kursk alone, though these figures remain unverifiable.
Estimates by Yuriy Butusov, a Ukrainian journalist with controversial standing, suggest around 70,000 Ukrainian troops have died since the war began, with another 35,000 missing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has disputed higher casualty figures reported in US media but has not provided alternative numbers.
Shifting Battlefield Dynamics
Despite recent losses, Russia’s ability to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses through sheer manpower has allowed for incremental gains. However, the pace of these advances is far slower than during the war’s initial months. A significant shift in artillery dynamics has contributed to this slowdown. Where Russia once outgunned Ukraine by a ratio of 13-to-1 in artillery fire, that figure has now narrowed to 1.5-to-1. This improvement is attributed to increased Ukrainian domestic production and successful attacks on Russian and North Korean ammunition depots.
Yet, artillery is no longer the decisive factor it once was. Russia has dramatically increased its use of glide bombs, deploying them from aircraft safely within its own airspace. Over the past year, their usage has surged tenfold, delivering devastating results on Ukrainian positions. Both sides are also relying heavily on drones, which are reshaping modern warfare and challenging traditional infantry tactics.
Manpower and Morale Challenges
Both Ukraine and Russia face significant manpower strains. Ukraine has avoided lowering its conscription age below 25, excluding younger men from mandatory service. Russia, on the other hand, continues to replenish its ranks despite President Vladimir Putin’s apparent hesitance to initiate a new wave of mobilization. Domestic factors, such as economic strain, overburdened hospitals, and compensation issues for bereaved families, may explain this reluctance.
Incentives to enlist have skyrocketed in Russia, with some regions offering bonuses of up to three million rubles (approximately $30,000) to volunteers. Still, pressures on the Russian economy are mounting, with rising inflation and resource demands from other fronts, such as Syria, adding to the strain.
A War of Attrition
As fighting intensifies in eastern Ukraine and Kursk, neither side appears ready to relent. For Russia, the decision to balance its commitment to Ukraine with its support for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad could complicate its long-term strategy.
“The Kremlin may face tough prioritization decisions depending on how events unfold in Syria,” noted a Western official. For now, however, the relentless grind of battle in Ukraine continues, with no clear resolution in sight.
