The Waning Charm of Liberation Movements in Africa: A Shift in Voter Loyalty
Africa’s longest-standing liberation movement, the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa, is facing a significant crisis, reflecting a broader trend among similar groups across the continent. Despite being the country’s most popular party, the ANC has lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years.
Gone are the days when voters automatically supported the party that led the fight against apartheid, a pattern seen in the decline of other post-colonial liberation movements that later succumbed to corruption, nepotism, and an electorate eager for change. Some of these movements in southern Africa have been accused of clinging to power through electoral manipulation.
David Soler Crespo, a researcher on the decline of liberation movements, believes that voter demand for change is inevitable. “It’s impossible for the same party to be democratically elected for 100 years,” he states. These parties have entrenched themselves deeply in the political and cultural fabric of their nations, making it challenging for voters to envision alternatives.
The transition from guerrilla fighters to government leaders often saw these movements position themselves as the only viable leaders, intertwining their identity with that of the nation. In Namibia, for instance, the phrase “Swapo is the nation, and the nation is Swapo” still holds weight.
Civil servants and government officials, particularly in security and state-controlled media, are often former fighters loyal to the party rather than the state. This lack of distinction between state and party further consolidates their power, as observed by Mr. Crespo.
Cultural legacies of the liberation struggle, such as songs and stories, are deeply embedded in national consciousness. However, over time, voters, especially younger generations, become less influenced by historical narratives. Namibian social scientist Ndumba Kamwanyah notes that declining support for Swapo, in power since 1990, is a result of voters focusing more on present issues than past glories.
Many liberation movements initially embraced socialist ideologies but have since drifted away, leading to questions about equitable benefits for citizens. Zambia’s United National Independence Party (Unip) was one of the first to experience this shift, losing power in the early 1990s after decades of unrest and dissatisfaction.
Liberation movements in Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, and Zimbabwe remain in power but face diminishing support and voter turnout. In Namibia’s 2019 elections, Swapo lost its two-thirds majority, and President Hage Geingob saw his vote share plummet from 87% in 2014 to 56%. The subsequent year’s regional and local elections also reflected Swapo’s waning influence.
Kamwanyah, who once campaigned for Swapo, respects the party’s historical achievements but is disillusioned with its current state. “What the party is doing doesn’t reflect the core original values of why people died for this country,” he laments. As Namibia approaches its general election in November, there is speculation that Swapo might not secure a majority.
Young Namibian activist Ndiilokelwa Nthengwe highlights a generational shift in values. “Our generation’s values don’t align with the government,” she says, advocating for equality, employment, and healthcare. “All the youth want is change, change, and more change.”
While Namibia and South Africa are viewed as open democracies, Zimbabwe, Angola, and Mozambique have faced allegations of suppressing opposition and rigging elections to maintain power. Adriano Nuvunga, who has observed Mozambican elections for over two decades, reports consistent electoral fraud and intimidation.
Zimbabwe’s elections have similarly been marred by violence and accusations of tampering. In 2008, Amnesty International documented severe abuses against opposition supporters. Angola’s 2022 elections also saw widespread protests over alleged fraud.
The prolonged rule of liberation movements often leads to corruption and governance issues, as foreseen by the late South African anti-apartheid hero, Chris Hani. He warned against liberators becoming elitists, disconnected from the people they once fought for.
A former Zimbabwean liberation fighter suggests that these movements are still adapting to a world not designed for them, contrasting their relatively short time in power with Europe’s centuries of authoritarian rule. Leading a revolution requires unity and loyalty, but governing demands flexibility and inclusiveness—skills some movements have struggled to develop.
Despite the challenges, Crespo believes these parties might retain power if they reconnect with their foundational ideals and respond to the aspirations of the youth. However, the clock is ticking, and their window of opportunity is narrowing.
