Moldova Grapples with Energy Crisis After Russian Gas Halt
On New Year’s Day, Russia stopped transporting natural gas through Ukraine, marking a pivotal moment for the region. Kyiv has hailed the move as “historic,” citing its refusal to extend a transit agreement with Russia’s Gazprom as a blow to Moscow’s war funding.
However, for neighboring Moldova, this development has sparked an energy crisis that could have severe repercussions.
Heat Runs Cold in Transnistria
In Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova aligned with Moscow, the new year began with homes left unheated. Only critical infrastructure, such as hospitals, is being supplied with heat.
Dmitry, a local resident, described the dire situation:
“The hot water was on until about 2 a.m., and then it stopped. Now, the radiators are barely warm,” he shared over the phone. “Gas is still flowing, but the pressure is so low it’s just what’s left in the pipes.”
This grim scenario is unfolding across Transnistria, a region that separated from Moldova during the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russian troops remain stationed there, and its economy relies entirely on free Russian gas.
“The authorities here don’t pay for the gas—they just keep a record of the growing debt,” explained Jakub Pieńkowski from the Polish Institute of International Affairs. “Russia hasn’t bothered to collect.”
That dependency has now been abruptly cut off.
Authorities in Transnistrian towns are scrambling to establish “heating points” and advising residents to seal windows and gather in one room to conserve warmth. With temperatures expected to dip below freezing, the region faces a harsh winter ahead.
Electricity on Borrowed Time
For now, the lights are still on in Transnistria. But the region’s main power plant, located in Kurchugan, has switched from Russian gas to coal and warns that reserves could run out in 50 days.
This spells trouble for the rest of Moldova, which sources 80% of its electricity from the plant. Although the Moldovan government has stockpiled enough gas to last until spring and plans to purchase electricity from Europe, such measures come with soaring costs.
The government has declared a state of emergency, urging citizens and businesses to conserve energy as the country braces for possible blackouts.
Ripple Effects Across Europe
The gas halt is also impacting Slovakia and Hungary, two EU countries that have maintained warmer ties with Moscow and are heavily reliant on Russian fuel. Both nations face financial strain as they seek alternative energy sources.
But Moldova’s fragile economy makes it especially vulnerable. A prolonged energy crisis could lead to widespread instability—a scenario that analysts believe aligns with Moscow’s strategic goals.
A Political Power Play?
Gazprom claims the halt in gas supplies is due to Moldova’s $700 million debt. However, Moldovan authorities dispute this, citing an international audit that pegs the figure at around $9 million, most of which has been repaid.
Olga Rosca, a foreign policy adviser to Moldova’s president, sees Russia’s actions as deliberate destabilization.
“This isn’t just an energy crisis—it’s a security crisis engineered by Moscow to disrupt Moldova economically and socially,” she said.
Relations between Moldova and Russia have been strained, particularly since the country began EU accession talks and further distanced itself from Moscow. President Maia Sandu, re-elected last year despite alleged Russian interference, has remained firm in her pro-European stance.
Russia has continued to spread disinformation, including baseless claims that President Sandu plans to retake Transnistria by force.
Analyst Jakub Pieńkowski believes the Kremlin’s goal is to erode public confidence in the government ahead of Moldova’s 2025 parliamentary elections.
Rising Pressure
The energy crisis is intensifying hardships in Transnistria, where local authorities have refused any aid from Chisinau, even offers of generators.
“They’ll frame this as Moldova freezing Transnistria into submission,” Rosca warned.
Dmitry, speaking from the buffer zone near Transnistria, painted a bleak picture: “The cost of heating, food—everything—will skyrocket. But pensions are tiny here, and jobs are scarce. People are barely holding on.”
As Moldova braces for a challenging winter, Moscow’s influence looms large, with energy insecurity threatening to undermine the country’s pro-European aspirations.
Pieńkowski predicts Moscow’s strategy could succeed if economic hardships persist. “People might vote against the government simply because they can’t afford gas or electricity,” he said.
For Russia, this may be the ultimate objective—leveraging energy to regain political influence in Moldova.
