Majority of Voters Believe Democrats Have Better Chance Without Biden in 2024, Poll Finds
A recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS reveals that three-quarters of U.S. voters think the Democratic Party would be more likely to retain the presidency in 2024 if someone other than President Joe Biden leads the ticket. This poll also shows Biden’s approval rating hitting a new low following a shaky first debate performance this campaign season.
In a hypothetical matchup between the expected major-party nominees, former President Donald Trump leads Biden by 6 points, with 49% favoring Trump and 43% backing Biden. This margin has remained consistent since last fall, as reflected in CNN’s national polling.
Both Trump and Biden have solidified support among their respective party members over recent months. However, independents increasingly appear reluctant to support either candidate. Interestingly, Vice President Kamala Harris comes close to Trump in a theoretical matchup, with 47% supporting Trump and 45% backing Harris, within the poll’s margin of error. Harris gains broader support from women and independents compared to Biden.
Other Democrats speculated as potential Biden replacements, such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, also trail Trump among registered voters, showing similar levels of support to Biden.
Despite these figures, Biden’s campaign remains firm that he will not withdraw from the race. Though some Democratic insiders have discussed the possibility of replacing him, any such move would be both logistically complex and politically risky.
Support for Biden among Democratic voters has slightly increased to 91% from 85% in April, while Trump enjoys 93% support among Republicans. Trump maintains a roughly 10-point advantage among independents, with the share of independents who choose neither candidate or do not plan to vote rising from 15% to 21%.
While more supporters of both Biden and Trump now express affirmative support for their candidate rather than opposition to the rival, the election remains driven by sentiments about Trump. Sixty-six percent of Trump supporters say their vote is mainly for him, up from 60% in January, whereas 37% of Biden’s supporters say their vote is primarily for the president, up from 32% earlier this year.
A majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters (56%) believe the party would have a better shot at winning with someone other than Biden, compared to 43% who think Biden offers the best chance. This confidence in Biden’s prospects has not grown since he secured the nomination: in January, 53% felt someone else would give the party a better chance, while 46% were more confident in Biden.
Republican voters have become more positive about their chances with Trump, with 83% now believing the GOP is more likely to win with him, up from 72% in January.
Biden’s approval rating among all Americans has fallen to 36%, with 45% strongly disapproving of his performance, a new high in CNN’s polling. His favorability stands at just 34%, with 58% viewing him unfavorably. Meanwhile, Harris, who has the highest recognition among potential Democratic replacements, has a 29% favorability rating, with 49% viewing her unfavorably.
Since April, Trump’s favorability rating remains unchanged at 39%, with 54% viewing him unfavorably. The “double-hater” voters, those who dislike both Biden and Trump, account for 18% and tend to favor Trump 41% to 31%.
In a generic congressional matchup, registered voters are nearly split, with 47% favoring the Republican candidate and 45% backing the Democrat in their district.
Voters see significant differences between Trump and Biden, particularly in honesty, ability to handle the job, and prioritizing the country over self-interest. Among Biden supporters, 31% cite honesty and integrity as the key difference, while 24% of Trump supporters prioritize job fitness.
Voters trust Trump over Biden on the economy and immigration, while Biden holds a slight edge on protecting democracy. Biden’s physical and mental abilities are a significant concern, with 72% citing them as reasons to vote against him, compared to Trump’s narrowly positive views on the same attributes.
Trump also leads Biden on foreign policy and as commander in chief, whereas Biden is trusted more on abortion, reproductive rights, and health care. Neither candidate is seen as particularly capable of uniting the country, with a plurality trusting neither.
Winning over skeptical and persuadable voters remains a challenge for Biden. About 31% of registered voters could still change their minds or do not support a specific candidate, with those who have decided heavily favoring Trump. Persuadable voters are more likely to dislike both Trump and Biden and see fewer differences between them, often preferring alternative Democrats in hypothetical matchups.
The CNN poll surveyed 1,274 adults nationwide, including 1,045 registered voters, from June 28-30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the full sample and 3.7 points for registered voters.
