Can Biden Be Replaced as the Democratic Nominee? It's Complicated
Following President Joe Biden’s lackluster performance in the first 2024 presidential debate against Donald Trump, there’s rising tension within the Democratic Party. Reports from the BBC suggest that party members are in a state of panic and confusion, debating whether the 81-year-old president should step aside.
The New York Times editorial board, a significant voice in the liberal sphere, has described Biden as a mere “shadow” of his former self and urged him to step down. But the question remains: Can Biden be replaced, and if so, how? The answer isn’t straightforward.
Can Joe Biden Withdraw?
Yes, Biden can withdraw if he chooses to retire. If he decides to step down, selecting another candidate would be relatively straightforward. The Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, scheduled from August 19-22, is where the party will officially nominate its candidate. Delegates, who are party officials assigned based on primary results, will select the nominee. This year, Biden secured nearly 99% of the nearly 4,000 delegates.
If Biden decides to bow out, the DNC would turn into an open convention. Potential nominees would be suggested, and voting would continue until a candidate secures the majority of delegate votes. This could lead to a chaotic scramble among Democrats aiming for the nomination. However, Biden has shown no signs of stepping aside. Political historian Leah Wright Rigueur told BBC News that Biden’s withdrawal could open “an entirely different can of worms,” suggesting that Biden might want to have a say in his replacement.
Could He Be Forced Out?
Forcing Biden out is even less likely. A major national party has never attempted a hostile takeover of the nomination, and there’s no indication that such a plan is in place. However, DNC rules do have loopholes that could theoretically allow for this. Delegates could, in good conscience, support another candidate if they feel it reflects the sentiments of those who elected them.
This could lead to an “incredibly ugly scenario,” according to Wright Rigueur. While experts doubt a revolt among delegates, the DNC can change party rules at any time. For instance, in 1968, the party shifted from an open convention process to a bound process after President Lyndon B. Johnson decided not to run for reelection. This means the rules surrounding the selection of a presidential nominee could be altered if necessary.
Even if Biden were to exit the race suddenly, conservative groups have vowed to file lawsuits challenging the legality of any replacement Democrat’s eligibility for the ballot.
Could Kamala Harris Replace Biden?
Vice President Kamala Harris would take over if Biden were to step down during his term. However, if Biden withdraws from the election race, the same rules don’t apply. Harris would need to win the majority of delegates like any other candidate. Despite being on the Democratic ticket, Harris’s low popularity could be a disadvantage.
Who Else Could Take Biden's Place?
Biden faced challengers like Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips and writer Marianne Williamson, but neither is seen as a viable alternative. Some have suggested California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, or Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. However, none of these potential candidates has publicly expressed a desire to replace Biden.
Could the 25th Amendment Be Invoked?
The 25th Amendment allows the vice president and the majority of the cabinet to declare the president unable to perform his duties, transferring power to the vice president as acting president. This has never been invoked. Following the debate, senior congressional Republicans called for Biden’s cabinet to consider this option. However, a similar move in 2021 to oust Trump went nowhere.
In conclusion, replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee is possible but fraught with challenges and potential turmoil. The party would need to navigate a complex and unprecedented process, whether Biden steps down voluntarily or is forced out.
