Trump’s New York Sentencing Still Possible Despite Presidential Win
With Donald Trump set to return to the White House, two federal cases against him have essentially stalled, as his presidential status shields him from certain legal consequences. However, a high-profile state case in Georgia—alleging interference in the 2020 election—will remain on hold until he leaves office, provided it survives that long.
Meanwhile, in New York, the last major case against Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts still hangs in the balance. Next week, Judge Juan Merchan will decide if Trump’s request to overturn the conviction will be granted. If it is, Trump could sidestep yet another legal hurdle. If denied, sentencing is scheduled for later this month, opening up unprecedented territory for the U.S. legal system.
“This is truly uncharted territory,” says Anna Cominsky, a professor at New York Law School.
Could the Conviction Be Overturned?
In May, a jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records, stemming from payments made to silence an adult film actress over an alleged affair with Trump. Trump’s lawyers contend that recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions on presidential immunity should protect him from aspects of this case, thus invalidating both the indictment and conviction.
Previously, Judge Merchan rejected Trump’s immunity claims, but that was before the Supreme Court’s summer ruling in Trump’s favor—and before his re-election win. Merchan has set a November 12 deadline for his decision on whether to overturn Trump’s conviction.
If the judge sides with Trump, the case ends. However, if he upholds the conviction, Trump’s sentencing remains on the calendar for November 26.
A Unique Sentencing Scenario – Jail Time Unlikely
If Merchan proceeds with sentencing, Trump’s team is expected to file additional delays and appeals, complicating the matter further. With the legal complexity surrounding the sentencing of a sitting president, some legal experts suggest the judge may delay sentencing until Trump’s term ends.
“I think a postponement is the most likely outcome,” says Daniel Richman, a Columbia Law School professor. “Sentencing a president would introduce immediate and complex issues, including political ones.”
If Trump does appear in a Manhattan courtroom later this month, his sentencing would be unprecedented. He faces possible fines, probation, or up to four years in prison, but his re-election makes certain sentences challenging.
“Sentencing a sitting president is incredibly complicated,” notes Cominsky. “It’s difficult to see how any sentence could be imposed without impacting the president’s duties or security.”
Few anticipate that Merchan would impose jail time on Trump. “He’s a 78-year-old man with no criminal history and convicted of a non-violent offense,” says retired New York Supreme Court Justice Diane Kiesel. “Judges generally wouldn’t hand down a prison sentence under those conditions.”
Even if a harsher sentence were considered, Trump’s legal team would likely appeal, delaying enforcement.
Merchan could settle for a minor penalty, such as a fine in the low thousands, or even issue an unconditional discharge, effectively ending the case with little more than a formality.
No Pardoning Power in New York
Trump’s re-election grants him the power to pardon himself on federal charges, but he has no such authority in New York state court. This conviction, if it stands, is beyond Trump’s control. His future in this case rests solely in the judge’s hands.
However, with potential leniency and no major punishment likely, Trump’s legal challenges seem unlikely to hold him back for long.
“It’s fair to say he’s fortunate,” Justice Kiesel concludes.
