A Year After Mutiny, Kremlin Integrates Wagner Remnants
In the year since the Wagner Group’s dramatic mutiny against President Vladimir Putin’s regime, Russia has dismantled and absorbed the mercenary organization, according to experts interviewed by the BBC.
On June 23, 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the now-deceased leader of Wagner, crossed from Ukraine and captured the southern city of Rostov, capitalizing on escalating tensions with Moscow’s military leadership. His forces then embarked on a rapid march towards Moscow, facing minimal resistance. This “march for justice,” as Prigozhin dubbed it, was abruptly halted the following day when he called off the advance.
Just two months later, Prigozhin died in a plane crash along with several senior Wagner members, casting doubt on the group’s future. Dr. Sorcha MacLeod, a UN mercenary expert and lecturer at the University of Copenhagen, noted that former Wagner soldiers have dispersed across various Russian state entities. “Wagner may no longer exist in its previous form, but variations of it persist,” she told the BBC. “There is no single controller anymore.”
Prigozhin’s forces, once a discreet yet vital tool for Russian operations in Africa and Syria, became prominent in Ukraine as conventional Russian troops struggled. Wagner played a crucial role in Russia’s few battlefield successes in late 2022 and early 2023, notably capturing the eastern city of Soledar and engaging in intense combat in Bakhmut. At its height, Wagner had about 50,000 mercenaries in Ukraine, according to the US National Security Council.
Currently, Wagner’s operations in Ukraine have been taken over by other Russian state and paramilitary units. A former Wagner commander told BBC Russian that the mercenaries were instructed to “join the ministry of defence” or disband.
UK intelligence suggests that some Wagner infantry units have been absorbed by the Rosgvardia, or National Guard, described as Putin’s “private army” and led by his former bodyguard Viktor Zolotov. The UK Ministry of Defence reported that in October 2023, parts of Wagner began operating under the National Guard’s control. These ex-Wagner troops, now termed “volunteer formations,” are deployed to Ukraine on six-month contracts and Africa on nine-month contracts.
Anton Yelizarov, a long-time Wagner operator, confirmed this integration in a video on a Wagner-linked Telegram channel, stating he was involved in establishing a camp for Wagner troops to “work for the good of Russia” alongside National Guard units.
UK officials believe the incorporation of former Wagner units into Rosgvardia indicates increased state control over the group. Some former Wagner members have joined forces with Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov and his Akhmat forces, a BBC Russian investigation revealed. The group’s decline was further highlighted when its logo was removed from a building it occupied in St Petersburg.
In the Central African Republic (CAR), Wagner still operates under the leadership of Prigozhin’s son, Pavel. After the mutiny, Prigozhin had reportedly negotiated to focus on African operations, supporting regimes and securing resources for Russia. Following his death, Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov reassured African officials of continued support.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) noted that Russia’s focus in Africa has not diminished but strengthened since Prigozhin’s death. Moscow now offers a “regime survival package” in exchange for access to key resources, a strategy previously employed by Wagner. This new approach is executed by the so-called Russian “expeditionary group” or Africa Corps, led by former GRU General Andrey Averyanov, who specializes in covert operations and destabilizing foreign governments.
Experts say the Africa Corps has effectively replaced Wagner in West Africa, offering recruits significant salaries and deploying troops to Burkina Faso and Niger. Ruslan Trad, a security analyst with the Atlantic Council, stated that in Africa, these soldiers continue Wagner’s roles, such as guarding trade routes and securing resources, while serving local juntas and managing migrant flows.
Although Wagner remains entrenched in the CAR, Dr. MacLeod suggested that Wagner’s initial objective was to demonstrate that mercenary groups can effectively combat terrorism, a goal Moscow may consider achieved. Despite the mutiny’s threat, the anniversary of Wagner’s uprising passed quietly in Russia.
Dan Storyev of the OVD-Info monitoring group noted that Prigozhin’s legacy is mostly felt by those aligned with the Kremlin. “The Wagner mutiny didn’t inspire significant grassroots support or anti-war protests,” he observed. “Protests in Russia are generally focused on anti-war activism, unrelated to Prigozhin.”
