US Election Polls: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump – Who Holds the Lead?
Americans head to the polls on November 5 to choose their next president in a race that has seen dramatic changes. Initially expected to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the contest shifted in July when Biden ended his campaign, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. Now, with the possibility of America’s first female president or a second term for Trump, all eyes are on the polls to gauge the impact of each candidate’s campaign.
Who is Leading Nationally?
Since her entry into the race in late July, Harris has maintained a modest lead over Trump in national polling averages. This early momentum allowed Harris to gain a nearly four-point advantage by the end of August, but as October progresses, the race has narrowed. The chart below shows the trend, with polling averages represented by smooth lines and individual results as dots.
While national polls offer a snapshot of a candidate’s popularity nationwide, they don’t necessarily predict the election outcome. The United States uses an electoral college system, where each state has a designated number of electoral votes based on its population. With 538 total electoral votes available, a candidate must secure at least 270 to win.
Most states have predictable voting patterns, so the real battleground is a select group of swing states, where support can fluctuate between parties and ultimately decide the election.
Tracking the Swing States: Who Leads in Key Battlegrounds?
In swing states, small polling differences make it difficult to determine a clear frontrunner. Because polls have a margin of error of about three to four percentage points, the averages are an approximation rather than a precise prediction.
The dynamics in these states since Harris’s campaign launch reveal some trends. In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, leads have alternated between the candidates, with Trump holding a slight advantage recently. In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—states crucial for Harris to secure a win—the race is very close, with Pennsylvania now in a dead heat.
Notably, Biden was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average across these swing states before he exited the race. Harris’s nomination has improved Democratic standings in key areas like Pennsylvania, where she has closed Biden’s gap. If she can maintain or extend this lead in the Midwest, Harris will be well-positioned to claim the presidency.
How are Polling Averages Created?
Polling averages shown here are provided by 538, a data-analysis platform associated with ABC News. 538 compiles data from various polling organizations, prioritizing those that meet standards for transparency about methods, sample sizes, and polling dates.
For a more detailed explanation of 538’s approach, you can visit their website.
Can We Rely on Polls This Year?
Past elections have shown polls can sometimes understate support for Trump. In both 2016 and 2020, polling had notable inaccuracies, with 2020’s error being the largest in four decades. Analysts attribute these misses to last-minute voter swings, over-representation of college-educated voters, and lower participation among Trump supporters in polls.
Pollsters have since revised their methods, and polling in the 2022 midterms was lauded as one of the most accurate in recent history. However, Trump’s absence in those elections leaves questions about whether the adjustments will hold in this presidential cycle. Whether the polling industry can effectively account for the unpredictable turnout Trump typically generates remains to be seen until election day.
Stay tuned for live updates as election day nears. Explore the critical moments that could shape the final outcome and get insights on when we’ll likely know who won.
