US Election Polls: Who Has the Edge - Harris or Trump?
As the US gears up for the presidential election on November 5, voters face a crucial decision. What began as a repeat of the 2020 election took an unexpected turn in July when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, throwing his support behind Vice-President Kamala Harris. Now, the question looms: Will Donald Trump reclaim the presidency, or will Kamala Harris become the first female president in US history?
With election day fast approaching, we’re tracking the latest polling data and analyzing the impact of major events, like the upcoming presidential debate, on the race.
Who Leads the National Polls?
Before Biden exited the race, polls consistently showed him trailing Trump. Even though Harris was a potential replacement, early polling suggested she might not perform much better. However, after officially launching her campaign, Harris gained ground, and she now holds a slim but steady lead over Trump in national polling averages. As of the latest polls, Harris is maintaining a small advantage.
The chart below reflects the evolving polling averages since Harris entered the race. The dots represent individual poll results, while the trend lines illustrate the overall shifts. Harris hit her peak of 47% following her party’s convention in Chicago on August 22, where she delivered a speech outlining a “new way forward” for Americans. Since then, her numbers have remained stable. Trump’s average, hovering around 44%, has also been steady, and the endorsement from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on August 23 didn’t bring a notable boost to his campaign.
While these national polls offer insight into a candidate’s overall popularity, they don’t necessarily predict the election outcome. Due to the US electoral college system, winning more votes doesn’t always mean winning the presidency. Success hinges on where those votes come from, with a handful of swing states likely to determine the result.
Who’s Leading in Battleground States?
The real battlegrounds are in a select group of states where the race is too close to call. These critical states will decide the election, and right now, polls show the competition is neck and neck. With fewer state polls available, the data is more limited, and the margins are razor-thin—often within just one percentage point.
In key states like Pennsylvania, where the most electoral votes are at stake, both Harris and Trump are locked in a tight contest. Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, traditionally leaned Democratic before Trump turned them Republican in 2016. Biden recaptured these states in 2020, and if Harris can hold onto them, she’ll be well-positioned to win.
Interestingly, Biden was trailing Trump by five percentage points in these battleground states when he ended his campaign. Harris’ entry has since narrowed that gap.
How Are These Polls Calculated?
The numbers in the charts are based on averages from polling analysis site 538, which collects data from various polling firms, both national and state-based. To ensure accuracy, 538 only includes polls that meet strict criteria, such as transparency in methodology and sample size. You can find more details on their methodology through their site.
Can We Trust the Polls?
With Harris and Trump so closely matched in both national and battleground state polls, it’s difficult to predict who will come out on top. In the past, polls underestimated Trump’s support, especially in 2016 and 2020. Pollsters are now working to refine their methods, making adjustments to better reflect voter turnout and demographics. However, predicting voter behavior, particularly who will show up on election day, remains a challenge.
While polls offer valuable insight, they are just one piece of a complex puzzle in this unpredictable race.
