What Could Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran Do Next?
Israel’s targeted killing of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s long-time leader, has intensified its conflict with the Lebanese militant group, potentially pushing the region toward a broader, more destructive war that could involve both Iran and the United States. So, what comes next? The future hinges on three critical questions.
How Will Hezbollah Respond?
Hezbollah is grappling with a series of crippling blows. Its leadership has been severely damaged, with over a dozen high-ranking officials assassinated. Its communications networks have been compromised, with equipment like pagers and radios being mysteriously destroyed. Additionally, airstrikes have wiped out large portions of its weapons stockpiles.
Mohammed Al-Basha, a security analyst based in the U.S., notes, “The loss of Hassan Nasrallah will have significant implications, potentially destabilizing the group and altering its political and military strategies in the short term.” Despite this, it’s unrealistic to expect Hezbollah to give in or negotiate peace on Israel’s terms.
Hezbollah remains determined to continue the fight. With thousands of seasoned fighters, many of whom gained experience during the Syrian conflict, the demand for revenge is high. The group still holds a significant cache of missiles, including long-range, precision-guided weapons capable of hitting major Israeli cities like Tel Aviv. Pressure is mounting internally to use these missiles before they are destroyed in future strikes.
However, if Hezbollah launches a major attack that overwhelms Israel’s defenses and leads to civilian deaths, Israel’s retaliation could be catastrophic, potentially leveling large parts of Lebanon’s infrastructure—or even reaching Iranian soil.
How Might Iran React?
Nasrallah’s assassination is a major loss for Iran as well, prompting the country to declare five days of national mourning. The Iranian leadership, particularly Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has taken immediate precautions, with the Supreme Leader being hidden away to prevent another high-profile assassination.
Iran has yet to respond to another blow—the July assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Now, hardliners in the regime are likely plotting some form of retaliation.
Iran maintains close ties with various militias across the Middle East, known collectively as the “Axis of Resistance.” Besides Hezbollah, this alliance includes groups like the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Syria and Iraq. Iran may direct these groups to ramp up attacks on Israeli and U.S. targets across the region.
However, any Iranian response is likely to be calculated to avoid sparking an all-out war that it cannot win.
What Will Israel Do Next?
If Israel’s intentions were unclear before, they certainly are not now. The assassination of Nasrallah signals that Israel is committed to pushing forward with its military campaign, ignoring calls for a 21-day ceasefire proposed by 12 nations, including the U.S.
Believing that Hezbollah is currently vulnerable, Israel will likely aim to neutralize the missile threat before considering any pause in its offensive. But achieving this goal may prove difficult without deploying ground forces into Lebanon—a move Hezbollah has been preparing for since the 2006 conflict.
In his last public address before his death, Nasrallah called an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon “a historic opportunity” for Hezbollah. Though the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are prepared for such an operation, with infantry units training near the border, the reality is that once inside Lebanon, the mission could turn into a prolonged and bloody conflict, much like Israel’s experiences in Gaza.
While Israel can likely enter Lebanon with relative ease, leaving might be a much more difficult and costly endeavor.
