Espionage, Sabotage, and Assassination Plots: Is Germany Facing a New Cold War?
In a series of unsettling events reminiscent of a Cold War thriller, Germany is experiencing a surge in security concerns that have raised fears of a modern-day Cold War. Among the alarming incidents: mysterious breaches at military bases, an alleged assassination plot against a top German defense executive, and the interception of sensitive communications from the Luftwaffe.
Germany has ramped up its alertness, particularly regarding potential Russian sabotage, given its steadfast military support for Ukraine. Though the connection to Moscow isn’t confirmed for every incident, the country’s intelligence agencies are on high alert.
Mark Galeotti, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and director of Mayak Intelligence, suggests that Europe may be in the early stages of a new Cold War. He notes, “When we think of the Cold War, we tend to recall the 1970s, when the rules were established and largely followed. But we may now be experiencing a phase more akin to the rawer and more uncertain period of the 1950s and 1960s.”
The potential assassination of Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, Germany’s leading arms manufacturer, is perhaps the most shocking development. The plot, allegedly orchestrated by Russian agents, would have sent shockwaves through the West if successful. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock condemned Russia for what she described as a “hybrid war of aggression,” despite the Kremlin’s denials.
The plot came to light just months after a serious security breach allowed spies to eavesdrop on a confidential Luftwaffe call, which was later broadcast on Russian television. The incident, which involved a brigadier general inadvertently using an insecure line, highlighted vulnerabilities within Germany’s counter-intelligence system. Critics argue that the country’s decentralized approach to security, coupled with a strong emphasis on privacy, has made it a weak link in Europe’s defenses.
Germany’s security concerns don’t end there. Recently, two German-Russian nationals were arrested on suspicion of planning sabotage against US military installations in Bavaria. The incident prompted Baerbock to summon the Russian ambassador, stating emphatically, “We will not allow Putin to bring his terror to Germany.”
Adding to the tension, mysterious holes were discovered in the fences of water facilities supplying two military bases in North Rhine-Westphalia, raising concerns over potential attempts to contaminate water supplies. This incident follows a series of apparent sabotage efforts targeting Germany, including the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosions.
The Nord Stream explosions remain shrouded in mystery, with Germany recently issuing an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor allegedly involved in the attack. While Kyiv has dismissed these allegations, the incident underscores the murky and unpredictable nature of modern espionage.
Not every act of sabotage in Europe can be directly attributed to Russia. In France, for instance, far-left activists were blamed for disrupting the high-speed rail network ahead of the Olympics, not Russian agents. However, the fact that Ukrainian individuals are now under scrutiny for the Nord Stream attacks has sparked renewed debate within Germany about the country’s support for Ukraine.
As Germany grapples with these security threats, the government is working on legislation to bolster the resilience of critical infrastructure. The proposed Kritis Umbrella Act would impose strict security standards on operators in vital sectors such as energy, transportation, and water supply. While the law has yet to be finalized, the urgency of recent events has made its approval more pressing.
Germany’s shifting security landscape reflects broader changes in its foreign policy. The country has already broken several long-standing taboos since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including the use of German-made Marder fighting vehicles by Ukrainian forces on Russian territory. Additionally, the US plans to station long-range missiles in Germany by 2026, further escalating tensions.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s promise of a “Zeitenwende,” or turning point in national defense and security policy, marked the beginning of a significant shift in Germany’s approach. However, reversing years of underinvestment in defense and adapting to a new security environment shaped by the shadow of Germany’s past will take time.
As Germany navigates these challenges, Mark Galeotti emphasizes that rebuilding defense capabilities, enhancing cyber-security, and improving counter-intelligence are long-term endeavors. He cautions that “security planning doesn’t happen over weeks or months but years.” The question now is whether Berlin can make the necessary adjustments quickly enough to meet the rising threats.
