Xi Jinping’s Economic Woes: What Do the Chinese People Think?
China’s economic slowdown has prompted its leaders to take dramatic measures. In just the past week, they’ve rolled out stimulus packages, offered rare cash handouts, held emergency meetings to spur growth, and introduced initiatives aimed at reviving the struggling property market. Yet, the impact on everyday Chinese citizens remains murky, with public sentiment often muted by heavy censorship.
Two recent studies, however, shed light on how ordinary people are feeling. One survey reveals rising pessimism and disillusionment regarding personal economic prospects. Another study shows an increase in protests—both online and in person—largely driven by economic frustrations. Although the full picture is unclear, these insights offer a rare glimpse into the current state of affairs and how citizens view their future.
The crisis extends beyond real estate woes. Public debt is rising, and unemployment continues to climb, hurting both savings and consumer spending. This year, China may fail to meet its growth target of 5%, a troubling sign for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). For years, China’s explosive economic growth transformed it into a global powerhouse, and stable prosperity was promised in exchange for a regime that maintained an iron grip on power.
From Optimism to Uncertainty
The roots of this economic malaise date back to the end of the pandemic. Strict, years-long lockdowns stifled economic activity, creating a stark contrast to the more prosperous years before the outbreak. Researchers Martin Whyte of Harvard University and Scott Rozelle of Stanford University conducted surveys between 2004 and 2023, which reveal how dramatically the mood has shifted.
In 2004, nearly 60% of respondents said their family’s financial situation had improved over the previous five years, with a similar number feeling optimistic about the future. Those numbers jumped even higher in 2009 and 2014, but by 2023, only 38.8% felt their financial circumstances had improved, and fewer than half (47%) believed things would get better in the next five years. Pessimism also surged, with 16% feeling uncertain about the future compared to just 2.3% in 2004.
The surveys covered respondents from 29 provinces, although politically sensitive areas like Xinjiang and Tibet were excluded due to logistical and political concerns. Those who participated were assured their responses were for academic purposes and would remain confidential, leading some to share their honest concerns.
A Struggling Youth
The economic slowdown has especially impacted young people. With youth unemployment soaring, many college graduates have been forced to take low-paying jobs, while others have adopted a “lie flat” mentality, resisting the pressures of overwork. A growing number have also become “full-time children,” moving back in with their parents, unable to find jobs or burnt out by the work culture.
Professor Alfred Wu from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore believes that the pandemic was a turning point for many in China. “It reminded everyone of the state’s authoritarian control. People felt more policed than ever before,” he said. Many experienced pay cuts, reinforcing feelings of uncertainty and depression.
Moxi, a 38-year-old former psychiatrist, is one of many who sought a slower pace of life. After leaving his job, he moved to Dali, a scenic city that has become a haven for young people seeking a break from the pressures of urban life. Reflecting on his time as a psychiatrist, he noted, “There was no room for optimism or pessimism. It was just work.” Now, he enjoys the slower pace of life, but notes the rising anxiety in those he used to counsel.
Does Hard Work Still Pay Off?
The belief that hard work leads to success, long a staple of Chinese society, is fading. In earlier surveys, more than 60% of respondents agreed that effort was rewarded in China. By 2023, only 28.3% held that belief. Lower-income families, earning less than 50,000 yuan a year, were the most pessimistic. The shift is notable, especially under Xi Jinping’s leadership, where the idea of the “Chinese Dream” has been heavily promoted, echoing the notion that hard work can lead to prosperity.
However, many respondents now believe wealth is more often a result of family privilege and connections, rather than talent or effort. Xi’s “common prosperity” policy, aimed at reducing the wealth gap, has largely failed to change these perceptions, with critics arguing it has simply resulted in more crackdowns on businesses.
Rising Protests
Discontent is increasingly being expressed through protests, which have risen by 18% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year. According to the China Dissent Monitor (CDM), a group tracking protests, more than three-quarters of these demonstrations are driven by economic grievances. Rural residents and blue-collar workers are protesting low wages and land grabs, while the middle class has been organizing protests over the real estate crisis. Homeowners and construction workers account for 44% of the cases in over 370 cities.
Although China’s economy is not yet in full collapse, the increase in dissent is worrying for Beijing. In 2022, a deadly fire during a Covid lockdown, which killed at least 10 people, sparked widespread protests against the government’s strict policies.
What About the CCP?
The Chinese government is clearly concerned about the growing discontent. In late 2023, the government stopped releasing youth unemployment figures after they reached record highs. Authorities also invented the term “slow employment” to describe those taking their time to find a job—separating them from the unemployed. Financial frustrations have been heavily censored, with critical posts scrubbed from social media and luxury influencers blocked to promote a “civilized, harmonious” environment.
Last week, the arrest of prominent economist Zhu Hengpeng, who criticized Xi’s handling of the economy, underscored how serious the government’s stance is. Despite the crackdown, the increase in protests is likely to continue worrying the Communist Party.
A Fragile Legitimacy
Whyte and Rozelle don’t believe that growing discontent will lead to a massive social upheaval, but they warn that the economic slowdown is undermining the legitimacy the Communist Party has built on decades of rapid growth. And with many people still haunted by the pandemic, feelings of insecurity persist, especially among marginalized groups like women and rural workers.
For those like Moxi, the slow life offers a reprieve from China’s pressures, but as he points out, “There’s a big difference between China doing well, and Chinese people doing well.”
