Israel’s Gamble: Can Its Offensive Break Hezbollah’s Resolve or Spark a Wider War?
Israel is betting on Hezbollah’s collapse as it intensifies its offensive, but faces a resilient and well-armed foe. The Israeli government is celebrating recent military actions, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant applauding Monday’s airstrikes, calling them a “masterpiece.” He claimed that these strikes eliminated thousands of rockets, potentially saving Israeli lives. However, Lebanon reports that over 550 of its citizens have been killed, including 50 children, marking nearly half the death toll seen in the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
Israel’s leadership believes that a brutal campaign could coerce Hezbollah into submission, making its leader Hassan Nasrallah, and Iran, reconsider the cost of continued resistance. But this isn’t a simple battle. Israeli forces are bogged down in Gaza, where Hamas continues to strike from tunnels and holds Israeli hostages, despite nearly a year of fighting. Hamas’ surprise attack last October left Israel reeling, but Lebanon is a different story. The Israeli military and intelligence services have long prepared for a renewed clash with Hezbollah, the last of which ended in a 2006 stalemate.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing hard to shift the balance of power. His aim is to stop Hezbollah’s rocket fire into Israel and dismantle military bases threatening Israeli security. Yet echoes of the drawn-out war in Gaza can be heard as Israel issues warnings to Lebanese civilians, urging them to flee areas targeted for attack. Critics, however, argue these warnings don’t allow enough time for safe evacuations, leading to civilian casualties.
Hezbollah, for its part, continues to launch rockets into Israel, some hitting civilian areas—a violation of international war laws. Both Israel and its key allies, including the US and UK, label Hezbollah a terrorist organization, but this hasn’t deterred the group from maintaining its presence at the Israeli-Lebanese border. Despite Israel’s insistence that its military operates within the bounds of international law, much of the world remains critical of its conduct, particularly in Gaza.
Tensions have simmered on the Israeli-Lebanese border since the 1980s, but the current conflict erupted after Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel. Nasrallah ordered daily rocket barrages, tying down Israeli troops and forcing tens of thousands of residents in border towns to flee.
A few commentators have likened the ongoing strikes on Hezbollah to Israel’s legendary 1967 Operation Focus, in which Israel destroyed Egypt’s air force and swiftly defeated its neighbors. But Lebanon is a different beast. Hezbollah has proven more resilient, and its capacity to strike remains intact.
Historically, Israel’s clashes with Hezbollah have been grueling and inconclusive. The current conflict risks a similar outcome, despite recent military successes. Israel is banking on Hezbollah’s collapse, but most analysts agree the group is unlikely to back down. Hezbollah’s very existence is rooted in its resistance to Israel, meaning continued conflict may force Israel to escalate its efforts further.
Should Hezbollah continue to render northern Israel uninhabitable, Israel may resort to a ground invasion to secure a buffer zone. But this scenario carries high risks. The Israeli military’s previous foray into Lebanon in 1982, which aimed to halt Palestinian raids, ended in humiliation. The occupation of Lebanese territory only strengthened Hezbollah, and by 2000, Israel was forced to withdraw.
In 2006, an Israeli-Hezbollah skirmish quickly escalated into full-blown war. Israel hoped air power alone would neutralize Hezbollah, but ground troops had to be sent in when rocket attacks persisted. Though the conflict devastated Lebanon, Hezbollah emerged still capable of launching rockets.
Any future ground invasion of Lebanon poses immense challenges. Hezbollah has spent the last 18 years preparing its defenses in the country’s rugged southern terrain. With an arsenal of up to 200,000 rockets and 30,000 active fighters, many of whom have battle experience from Syria, Hezbollah is not an easy adversary.
Meanwhile, Israel’s ability to sustain a prolonged war is uncertain. Its army is strong, but the reserve units, which form much of its combat force, are already stretched thin after a year of fighting. Adding a third front in Lebanon to the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the West Bank would strain Israel’s resources further.
Diplomatically, Israel faces growing pressure from its allies to avoid escalating the war with Hezbollah. The U.S., in particular, has emphasized that only diplomacy can ensure the border’s stability. While an agreement based on a UN resolution from the 2006 war exists, any hope of a lasting truce remains tied to peace in Gaza, where neither Hamas nor Israel shows signs of backing down.
For now, Lebanese civilians are bearing the brunt of the conflict. With their country’s economy in shambles, the situation for those living near the border is dire. Fear grips both sides—Israelis know Hezbollah is capable of far more damage than it has inflicted so far.
Israel believes that this is the moment to take bold, aggressive action, but with Hezbollah unwilling to back down and fully equipped to continue the fight, the situation threatens to spiral into something far worse.
