Lebanon’s Fragile Ceasefire: A Temporary Relief, Not a Long-Term Solution
The ceasefire in Lebanon, long awaited by its weary citizens, offers a brief respite but no lasting resolution for the region’s complex challenges. A Lebanese analyst attending a Middle East conference in Rome described the anticipation of the ceasefire as a night filled with hope and nervous excitement.
“It felt like Christmas Eve as a child. I couldn’t wait for it to come,” she shared, reflecting the collective exhaustion of a nation battered by conflict.
The devastating toll on Lebanon has been staggering. Israeli strikes have claimed the lives of over 3,500 Lebanese citizens, forced more than a million people to flee their homes, and left countless others injured. Many have returned to scenes of utter destruction, as families pack their vehicles to salvage what remains of their lives.
Mixed Reactions in Israel
In contrast, within Israel, the ceasefire has sparked mixed feelings. Some see it as a necessary pause, while others argue it cuts short efforts to deal a more decisive blow to Hezbollah. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faced intense criticism during a meeting with northern municipal leaders, many of whom expressed frustration over continued security threats and the slow return of evacuees to their homes.
Public opinion reflects this divide: a recent Channel 12 News poll found Israelis evenly split on supporting the ceasefire, with many doubting its durability and others believing Hezbollah remains undefeated.
A Fragile Deal with Historical Roots
The ceasefire’s framework resembles the provisions of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon war. Under the terms, Hezbollah is expected to retreat from the border, replaced by UN peacekeepers and the Lebanese Armed Forces, while Israeli troops gradually withdraw. Yet the path to this agreement has been fraught with setbacks.
Weeks before, during the UN General Assembly, a similar deal seemed imminent. However, Netanyahu’s fiery speech rejecting any pause in Israel’s military campaign derailed the process. His decision to target and assassinate Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, escalated the conflict further, crippling Hezbollah’s leadership but leaving the organization capable of retaliatory strikes.
A Calculated Pause
For Netanyahu, the ceasefire comes at a strategic moment. The military campaign in Lebanon has significantly weakened Hezbollah’s infrastructure, severing its ties with Gaza and damaging Iran’s broader network of regional influence.
“We’ve shaken Beirut to its core,” Netanyahu declared in his announcement, emphasizing the need to regroup and replenish military supplies. The ceasefire also allows Israel to concentrate on other pressing issues, including its ongoing offensive in Gaza and countering Iran’s influence in the region.
Iran’s Shifting Calculations
Iran, a long-time patron of Hezbollah, has also signaled a need for pause. The damage inflicted on Hezbollah has undermined Tehran’s regional strategy, forcing it to recalibrate. The assassination of key figures like Nasrallah and the earlier killing of Qasem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force, have left Iran’s “axis of resistance” in disarray.
While Iran’s missile strikes in retaliation for Nasrallah’s death aimed to reassert strength, they failed to reverse the tide. For now, Tehran and Hezbollah are left to regroup, knowing the ceasefire might only offer a temporary lull in hostilities.
What Lies Ahead
Despite the ceasefire in Lebanon, Gaza remains an unresolved flashpoint. Israel’s campaign there is driven by deeper motivations, including security, political survival, and a rejection of Palestinian independence. The Lebanon ceasefire, set to unfold over 60 days, is a fragile truce in a region primed for further unrest.
As global attention shifts toward the Middle East’s future, the stakes are high. With Donald Trump poised to return to the Oval Office, his approach to the region remains uncertain. Optimists hope for groundbreaking diplomacy akin to Nixon’s opening to China, while skeptics fear an abandonment of efforts toward a two-state solution, potentially paving the way for further annexations.
What is clear is that the Middle East’s cycle of conflict will persist until its deep-rooted political fractures, particularly the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, are meaningfully addressed. The Lebanon ceasefire is a momentary reprieve, but peace remains elusive in a region haunted by generations of war.
