Gaza: Extended Conflict by Israel Likely After War
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently suggested that the most intense phase of fighting in Gaza is nearing its end. This statement aligns with the events of the past few months. The Israeli army’s current operations in Rafah, a city in southern Gaza, are being presented as the final major ground offensive.
Despite significant international criticism, Israel has persisted with its strikes, which have resulted in numerous Palestinian civilian casualties. However, these strikes haven’t matched the relentless bombardment seen in Gaza City and Khan Younis earlier. Israeli forces, supported by tanks, are still clashing with Palestinian fighters in Rafah’s western regions while systematically demolishing buildings.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) claim to have severely weakened three of the four Hamas battalions in Rafah, which was a primary objective. This raises the possibility that the IDF might soon declare the operation complete.
Ongoing Strikes and Civilian Hardships
For Gaza’s residents, there’s been no relief. The health ministry in Gaza, overseen by Hamas, continues to report daily casualties of 40 to 60 people. Israeli strikes persist across Gaza, from the north to the center, with no immediate end in sight. Netanyahu’s strategy emphasizes Israel’s ability to conduct strikes as needed, even after a full troop withdrawal from Gaza.
In Washington, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has discussed “Phase C” of Israel’s campaign with US officials. Gallant indicated that this phase would influence developments across all fronts and that Israel is preparing for various scenarios both militarily and diplomatically. This message was reiterated in his meetings with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
Northern Front and Potential Conflict with Hezbollah
Netanyahu’s reference to “all fronts” notably includes Israel’s northern border, where tensions with Hezbollah have escalated. This has sparked speculation about a potential all-out war with the Lebanese armed group. Netanyahu has hinted that reducing the Gaza conflict would allow for troop redeployment to Lebanon’s border. Both he and Israeli President Isaac Herzog have visited the northern border to assess the situation and support affected communities.
Uncertain Future and Ceasefire Prospects
The Gaza conflict shows no signs of ending, even at reduced intensity. Ceasefire negotiations have stalled, with both Israel and Hamas reluctant to accept all elements of President Biden’s proposal. Netanyahu dissolved the Israeli war cabinet after Benny Gantz resigned, criticizing the lack of a post-war plan.
Netanyahu has stated that Israel will maintain military control in Gaza for the foreseeable future. He envisions a civilian administration, possibly with local Palestinians and regional support, to manage humanitarian and civilian affairs. This aligns with the Biden administration’s goals, with reports indicating that Egypt and the UAE might contribute to a post-war security force in Gaza.
Challenges and Hostage Crisis
The concept of a “Day After” in Gaza may be overly optimistic. Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters continue guerrilla tactics, re-emerging in areas previously cleared by Israeli forces. IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari recently acknowledged that completely eliminating Hamas is unrealistic, as it is deeply rooted in the local populace.
Despite this, Netanyahu remains committed to his goal of defeating Hamas both militarily and politically. This stance has complicated ceasefire efforts, frustrating US officials who hoped for a different approach. Hamas has accused Netanyahu of blocking ceasefire agreements, while the White House holds Hamas responsible.
In Israel, families of hostages held by Hamas have criticized Netanyahu, accusing him of prioritizing his political position over their relatives’ release. Recent protests have highlighted their desperation and anger.
