Russia and the U.S. Maneuver for Control in Ukraine War as Trump’s Return Looms
As the countdown to Donald Trump’s return to the White House narrows to two months, both the Biden administration and the Kremlin are making decisive moves to shape the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Each side is striving for a strategic edge, with Moscow escalating its posture and Washington revisiting previously firm boundaries in its support for Kyiv.
The Biden administration recently allowed Ukraine to deploy long-range ATACMS missiles, which were swiftly used to strike deep into Russian-held territory. This decision, along with a pledge to supply anti-personnel landmines, signals a notable shift in U.S. policy. The change reportedly comes in response to a significant escalation: the deployment of thousands of North Korean soldiers to the front lines, a development the U.S. views as a critical threat.
Meanwhile, Russia has intensified its military efforts. This week saw its largest aerial assault on Ukraine in nearly three months, as Moscow stockpiles advanced missiles for future strikes. Simultaneously, President Vladimir Putin loosened restrictions on the use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, a move interpreted as a warning to NATO and a signal of Moscow’s unwillingness to accept defeat.
One analyst described this period as an “in-between moment” for Russia, with the Kremlin working to maximize its position before Trump takes office. “Putin wants to ensure Trump comes to the table understanding that Russia won’t compromise,” explained Mykhaylo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network in Ukraine.
Biden’s Moves and the Political Fallout
President Biden’s approval of ATACMS missiles has drawn mixed reactions in the U.S. Some Republicans have praised the move as overdue, while others accuse him of risking further escalation. Trump’s camp remains vocal, with Donald Trump Jr. accusing Biden of pushing the world toward war. Meanwhile, Trump’s pick for National Security Adviser, Mike Waltz, cautioned that the situation could spiral unpredictably.
The timing of Biden’s decisions has led to speculation about their implications for Trump’s anticipated efforts to end the war. Trump has vowed to resolve the conflict within 24 hours of his return to power—a claim that many view with skepticism. “There’s one president at a time,” responded State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, emphasizing that Biden’s actions are aimed at aiding Ukraine in the present.
On the Ground in Ukraine
As Ukraine marks 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion, its forces continue to fight fiercely in the eastern regions. Kyiv faces relentless pressure as Russia seeks to capture strategic hubs. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that without continued Western aid, his country’s survival is at stake. “If support is cut, we will lose. But we will never stop fighting,” he said.
Despite the dire circumstances, Zelensky has shown no willingness to concede territory. Crimea, as well as all areas currently occupied by Russia, remains non-negotiable. Analysts believe that any concession would ignite political turmoil within Ukraine, where the populace views such an outcome as betrayal.
Putin’s Strategy and the Road Ahead
Putin’s recent nuclear policy revisions further complicate the prospect of negotiations. While these changes may serve as a deterrent rather than a direct operational guideline, they underscore Moscow’s determination to project strength. Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center suggests Putin’s strategy is to instill fear among Western leaders and force them to reconsider their support for Ukraine.
As Trump’s inauguration approaches, both sides are positioning themselves for a potential shift in the geopolitical landscape. Kremlin insiders hint at minimal demands for a Trump-brokered deal, but observers warn that such a settlement could destabilize Ukraine internally. For Kyiv, the key to survival lies in holding the line, leveraging new weapons like ATACMS to prevent any significant Russian breakthroughs.
For Ukrainians, the war remains a long and uncertain struggle. Many believe their best chance for a lasting resolution will only come with a change in leadership in Moscow. Until then, Zelensky and his people are committed to enduring the conflict, no matter how long it takes, to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
As the world watches, the question remains: How will the battle for advantage play out in the months ahead—and what role will the U.S. and its shifting leadership play in shaping Ukraine’s fate?
