Moscow’s Cautious Optimism: Reflecting on Trump’s 2016 Win and the Uncertainty of 2024
Back in 2016, Moscow had big expectations for Donald Trump. Russian ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, thrilled by Trump’s surprise victory, bought 132 bottles of champagne to celebrate in the Duma, Russia’s parliament. He wasn’t the only one feeling festive—RT editor Margarita Simonyan even planned to drive around Moscow with an American flag in her window, and some Russian officials popped cigars and more champagne to toast Trump’s win.
Russians believed Trump would lift sanctions and recognize Crimea as part of Russia. But the excitement was short-lived. By the end of Trump’s presidency, many in Moscow were left disappointed. Konstantin Remchukov, editor-in-chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, recalls how Trump, instead of easing tensions, imposed some of the toughest sanctions on Russia. The initial joy quickly fizzled out, and the relationship between the two countries soured further.
Now, with the 2024 election on the horizon, Moscow is more reserved. Publicly, Russian officials appear cautious about the prospect of Trump returning to the White House. Even President Vladimir Putin has thrown some playful remarks toward the Democrats, saying he admired Kamala Harris’s “infectious” laugh. But insiders know the real story: it’s Trump’s comments on Ukraine and his critique of US military aid that are catching Moscow’s attention.
Trump has criticized the scale of American assistance to Ukraine and has avoided fully condemning Russia’s invasion. On the other hand, Kamala Harris has taken a firm stance, calling support for Ukraine vital to US interests and labeling Putin as a “murderous dictator.” Russian state TV, however, hasn’t been particularly flattering toward Harris, with some commentators mocking her political abilities.
In Moscow, many view a tightly contested US election, especially one that results in chaos, as a possible win for the Kremlin. Such turmoil in America would likely divert attention away from foreign policy, including the war in Ukraine.
US-Russia relations, already strained under Obama and Trump, have continued to deteriorate under Joe Biden. After Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration hit Russia with severe sanctions and sent advanced weaponry to Ukraine, including Abrams tanks and HIMARS rocket systems, helping Kyiv hold the line.
The days of US-Russia cooperation, like those under Reagan and Gorbachev in the late 1980s, seem distant now. At one time, the two leaders worked together to reduce their nuclear arsenals, with Reagan famously reciting Russian proverbs to Gorbachev, though perhaps not the one about buying champagne too early.
Today, the symbolic bond between the two nations has eroded, much like the “duck diplomacy” monument—bronze ducks gifted by the US to Moscow as a symbol of friendship between their children—that still stands in Moscow’s Novodevichy Park. While the ducks have weathered some damage over the years, so has the once hopeful relationship between Russia and America.
In the park, views of the US vary. Some, like fisherman Igor, harbor deep resentment toward America, blaming it for global conflicts. Yet others, like Svetlana and Nikita, hope for peace and better relations, preferring diplomacy over competition. Nikita, in particular, feels that Trump, despite everything, kept things calmer on the global stage.
And while Russia and the US have long had male presidents, there’s a sense among some Muscovites that it might be time for change. “I think it would be great if a woman became president,” says Marina, reflecting on both the US and Russia’s political futures.
