Russian Momentum Grows as Ukraine's Kursk Offensive Stalls
Russia has significantly ramped up its military progress in Ukraine, making notable territorial gains as Kyiv’s gamble in the Russian Kursk region struggles to maintain momentum. The situation marks a pivotal moment in the war, with both nations vying for strategic leverage.
Russian Gains Surge in Eastern Ukraine
Recent analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reveals a striking acceleration in Russian advances this year. Having captured nearly 2,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2024—six times more than its gains in the previous year—Russia is pushing toward critical Ukrainian supply hubs in the Donbas region.
The offensive has picked up pace in recent months, particularly in areas like Kupiansk in Kharkiv and Kurakhove in Donetsk. Russia’s focus on these areas threatens to breach key Ukrainian defensive lines, with the possibility of encircling Ukrainian troops in strategically vital cities.
Kupiansk, a crucial crossing point along the Oskil River, has become a flashpoint. Although Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian advance within 4 kilometers of the city’s main bridge in mid-November, ongoing pressure suggests Ukraine’s positions are increasingly strained.
Further south, Kurakhove remains under intense attack. The city’s defenders have managed to hold off Russian assaults from multiple directions, but the encroaching front line has brought destruction to residential areas and raised concerns about a potential collapse.
Experts warn that if Russia continues its steady gains, Ukraine’s eastern front could face dire consequences. Dr. Marina Miron of King’s College London noted that Russia’s relentless advances could lead to a “collapse” of Ukraine’s defensive lines if no significant countermeasures are taken.
Kursk Offensive Hits Trouble
Ukraine’s bold August incursion into Russia’s Kursk region initially boosted morale and showcased Kyiv’s ability to strike deep into enemy territory. Ukrainian forces swiftly seized control of border communities, catching Russia off guard. However, the operation has since faltered under Russian counterattacks.
As of November, Russian forces have reclaimed nearly half of the 1,171 square kilometers Ukraine captured at the start of the operation. Moscow has deployed approximately 50,000 troops to the region, while verified footage highlights intense fighting and significant casualties on both sides.
Ukraine had hoped the Kursk offensive would divert Russian resources from the Donbas, slowing Moscow’s advances there. However, analysts say Russia instead pulled reinforcements from less active fronts, such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, minimizing disruption to its eastern campaign.
Dr. Miron described the operation as a “tactical brilliance” that ultimately turned into a “strategic catastrophe.” She explained that while the offensive initially created political leverage, it has bogged down some of Ukraine’s most experienced units, leaving them tied up in a region with limited long-term gains.
Strategic Costs for Both Sides
Despite its territorial gains, Russia has paid a steep price. A BBC analysis estimates that over 78,000 Russian troops have been killed since the war began, with losses in recent months exceeding those from the same period in 2023. Russia’s high casualty rate is partly attributed to its “meat grinder” tactics—waves of recruits thrown into battle to deplete Ukrainian forces.
For Ukraine, the Kursk offensive has drained resources and manpower at a critical time. Although the operation aimed to provide a bargaining chip in potential negotiations, it has failed to halt Russia’s momentum in the east.
Future Uncertainty
As Russia consolidates its gains, attention turns to the geopolitical landscape. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to end the war quickly after taking office in January, raising questions about the future of American military aid to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Kyiv continues its efforts to hold onto portions of the Kursk region, recently deploying U.S.-supplied long-range missiles against Russian targets. While such moves signal Ukraine’s determination, analysts believe Russia’s battlefield successes have strengthened its negotiating position.
“If negotiations begin, they will heavily reflect the situation on the ground,” Dr. Miron concluded. “And right now, Russia holds stronger cards than Ukraine.”
The conflict remains fluid, with both sides bracing for what comes next in this high-stakes struggle for territory and leverage.
