Gaza Conflict: Study Suggests Death Toll Far Higher Than Reported
A new study published in The Lancet medical journal indicates that the death toll from the Gaza war might be significantly underreported. The research, led by UK-based scientists, estimates that the number of Palestinians killed due to traumatic injuries during the conflict could be as high as 64,260—41% more than the official figures provided by Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.
The study analyzed the first nine months of the war, which began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a large-scale attack on Israel. The research relied on multiple data sources, including ministry reports, an online survey of bereaved relatives, and public obituaries. Using a statistical approach called “capture-recapture,” the researchers cross-referenced overlapping records to estimate deaths caused by traumatic injuries.
Conflicting Figures and Distrust
The Hamas health ministry reports a death toll of 46,006, largely civilians, though these numbers are treated with skepticism by Israel. The Israeli embassy in the UK dismissed the data as unreliable, claiming it serves Hamas’s interests. Similarly, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) assert that they have “eliminated over 17,000 terrorists,” though their methodology remains unclear.
Israel maintains that its strikes target combatants and minimize civilian casualties. However, independent verification has been hampered, as Israel has denied international journalists access to Gaza.
Contrastingly, the UN regards the health ministry’s figures as credible. It recently reported that most verified victims during a six-month period were women and children, underlining the human cost of the conflict.
Revised Estimates and Their Implications
The research from The Lancet puts the potential death toll between 55,298 and 78,525 people, significantly higher than the health ministry’s reports. The estimates are subject to some uncertainty, as classifying deaths due to “traumatic injury” across datasets can skew the results.
The study also highlighted that 59% of the fatalities with known demographic details were women, children, and elderly individuals—underscoring the toll on non-combatants.
The War’s Origins
The conflict erupted after Hamas gunmen killed approximately 1,200 Israelis and abducted 251 individuals in a surprise attack. Israel responded with a large-scale military offensive on Gaza, leading to devastating destruction and loss of life.
As the war continues, debates around the accuracy of casualty reports and the ethical responsibilities of both sides remain a critical focus. The findings of this study provide a grim reminder of the conflict’s staggering human cost.
