Assad's Fall Marks a Major Blow to Russian Influence in the Middle East
For nearly a decade, Russian firepower played a critical role in propping up Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Yet, in just a matter of days, Moscow’s long-standing influence in the war-torn country has seemingly collapsed, leaving the Kremlin struggling to respond.
The Russian foreign ministry issued a brief statement confirming that Assad had stepped down as president and left Syria. However, it offered no clues about his destination. The statement expressed “extreme concern” over the unfolding situation, as Damascus fell into the hands of rebel forces.
A Crushing Blow to Moscow’s Ambitions
The fall of the Assad regime represents a significant setback for Russia, which has spent years using Syria as a stage to assert itself as a global power. When Russian troops and airstrikes intervened in 2015, Moscow was seen as challenging Western dominance beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union for the first time.
The initial results bolstered Russia’s image. By 2017, President Vladimir Putin visited Russia’s Hmeimim air base in Syria, proudly declaring victory. Despite international condemnation and reports of civilian casualties caused by Russian airstrikes, the Kremlin showcased its success with media tours of its military operations. During one such visit, a Russian officer confidently remarked that their presence in Syria was “for the long haul.”
Strategic Assets at Stake
Beyond the prestige of stabilizing Assad’s rule, Moscow had practical interests in Syria. In exchange for its military support, Russia secured 49-year leases for its Hmeimim air base and Tartus naval base. These locations served as vital hubs for Russian operations, including deploying military contractors to Africa and strengthening its strategic foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Now, with Assad gone, the future of these bases is uncertain. The Russian foreign ministry has claimed they are on “high alert,” insisting there is “no serious threat” to their safety for the moment. However, the collapse of Assad’s government raises questions about the Kremlin’s long-term hold over these assets.
A Heavy Investment with Little Return
For Russia, Assad was more than just an ally—he was a linchpin of Moscow’s Middle Eastern strategy. Over the years, Russia poured substantial military, financial, and political resources into keeping him in power. His sudden downfall risks unraveling those investments and leaves Moscow scrambling to manage the fallout.
Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, addressed the gravity of the situation in a social media post, calling it a “tragedy for everyone.” He emphasized that Russia’s immediate focus is the safety of its citizens, including diplomats, their families, and military personnel stationed in Syria.
Looking Ahead
As rebels solidify control over Damascus and Syria’s future hangs in the balance, Russia’s influence in the region faces its greatest challenge in years. The loss of Assad’s regime not only damages Moscow’s prestige but also threatens the strategic gains it fought so hard to secure.
