Opinion: Kamala Harris - The Democrats' Essential Choice
As the Democratic National Convention approaches, discussions swirl around President Joe Biden’s potential re-nomination. If Biden is not the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris stands as the most logical and strategic alternative. Democrats who are uneasy about Biden’s campaign should recognize this: bypassing Harris would not only overlook her qualifications but also damage the party’s electoral prospects.
Harris has played a pivotal role in advancing the administration’s economic and national security goals. Her efforts in supporting historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs), addressing maternal health, and tackling health disparities have been both significant and impactful. Harris has proven herself a formidable advocate for the administration, clearly communicating its policies and highlighting the dangers of a Trump return.
Despite speculation in progressive circles about nominating someone other than Harris, there is little consideration of the negative electoral consequences. African Americans constitute about 14% of the U.S. population, yet they represented nearly 20% of Biden’s voters in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center. In a tight election year, alienating this crucial demographic by passing over Harris could fracture the coalition necessary to defeat Trump.
Consider Pennsylvania as an example. Biden won the state in 2020 by a slim 1.2% margin, equating to around 80,000 votes out of nearly 7 million. Biden secured about 90% of the Black vote in Pennsylvania and 92% nationwide. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 3 points in Pennsylvania, with his support among Black voters dropping to 69%. This decline could mean a loss of hundreds of thousands of Black votes, far exceeding Biden’s 2020 margin of victory.
If Democrats think they have issues with Black voters now, imagine the fallout from sidelining the first Black woman vice president in favor of an untested candidate. Expecting Harris to campaign for another nominee would likely alienate Black voters further, diminishing their support for the party.
Should California Governor Gavin Newsom win the nomination through a contentious convention process, the next steps would be politically and symbolically fraught. Harris would need to change her voter registration from California to Washington, D.C., to allow another Californian on the ticket, an indignity unlikely to be well-received. Moreover, it’s improbable that prominent Democratic figures like Senators Cory Booker or Raphael Warnock, or Maryland Governor Wes Moore, would accept a scenario where Harris is removed from the ticket, considering their own political ambitions.
A CNN poll by SSRS indicates that Harris could potentially win against Trump, with 45% of registered voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 47%. This 2% gap suggests that, with unified support, Harris could close the margin. Additionally, Harris is best positioned to access Biden’s campaign funds, a critical advantage given the tight timeline.
Importantly, none of the other potential candidates have undergone the rigorous national vetting that Harris has. Historical examples, such as the rapid rises and falls of John Edwards, Ron DeSantis, and Jeb Bush, highlight the risks of backing untested candidates. The stakes are too high to gamble on an unproven nominee in this pivotal election.
Ultimately, more than 81 million Americans voted for Biden and his choice of Harris as vice president. If discussions about replacing Biden on the ticket are to be had, it must be understood that Harris is the only viable alternative. Any other choice jeopardizes the party’s chances before the convention even begins.
