What Leaked US Intelligence on Israeli Strike Plans Against Iran Reveals
US authorities are investigating the origins of two highly classified intelligence documents that were leaked online, specifically through the messaging platform Telegram last Friday. These documents reportedly outline a US evaluation of Israel’s potential military action against Iran, based on satellite data and other forms of intelligence.
John Kirby, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, stated on Monday that President Joe Biden is “deeply concerned” about the leak. However, investigators are still uncertain whether it was the result of a deliberate leak or a cyberattack.
For the past three weeks, Israel has been threatening severe retaliation against Iran following a significant ballistic missile assault on Israel on October 1. Iran, on its part, claims that the missile strike was in response to Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, just days earlier on September 27.
Are the Documents Authentic?
Military analysts have weighed in on the leaked papers, noting that their language and headings seem consistent with previously revealed classified materials. Marked as “Top Secret,” the documents feature the acronym “FGI,” which stands for “Foreign Government Intelligence.” These files were reportedly shared with members of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance: the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
Another abbreviation, “TK,” which stands for “Talent Keyhole,” also appears in the documents. This refers to satellite-based Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) and Imagery Intelligence (IMINT).
What Do the Documents Reveal?
The leaked documents, dated October 15-16, provide a classified US assessment of Israel’s preparations for an attack on Iranian targets, analyzed by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.
A key point is the mention of two Air Launched Ballistic Missile (ABLM) systems, dubbed Golden Horizon and Rocks. The Rocks system, developed by Israeli defense contractor Rafael, is designed for long-range strikes on both surface and underground targets. Golden Horizon is believed to be associated with the Blue Sparrow missile, which has a range of approximately 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles).
This suggests that Israel’s Air Force is preparing for an expanded version of its ABLM attack on an Iranian radar facility near Isfahan earlier in April. By launching from a considerable distance, Israel could avoid flying over neighboring countries like Jordan, reducing geopolitical complications.
The documents also clarify that Israel has not taken steps to activate its nuclear arsenal. Although the US government refrains from publicly acknowledging Israel’s nuclear capabilities, this revelation has caused some embarrassment in Washington.
What’s Missing from the Leaks?
Interestingly, the documents omit details about the specific targets Israel intends to hit or the timeline for such strikes. While Washington has made it clear that it opposes any Israeli action against Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, other possible targets remain. The documents suggest that military bases, particularly those tied to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia, are the likely focus. These groups are considered vital to Iran’s regime, both for external military ventures and domestic control.
As for timing, Israel’s retaliation was widely expected to have occurred by now. However, the delay may be strategic. For instance, in April, Iran waited 12 days before launching a massive drone and missile barrage in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in Damascus. Another reason for Israel’s current restraint could be US concerns about escalating tensions just weeks before the upcoming US presidential election.
Was the Leak Deliberate?
There is speculation that the leak may have been intentional, possibly by someone seeking to derail Israel’s plans. Iran’s cyber-warfare capabilities are also being considered as a potential source of the breach.
If the documents are authentic, they highlight a complex reality: despite the close defense partnership between Israel and the US, Washington still keeps a careful eye on its ally. The materials indicate that Israel’s plans for a long-range strike against Iran are well-developed, and that it is preparing for an inevitable Iranian counterattack.
In summary, if and when Israel proceeds with its plans, the Middle East could once again face a significant surge in tension.
