Trump and Harris Clash Over the Election's Pivotal Issue
After nearly a year off the platform, Donald Trump made a return to X this week, engaging his 89 million followers with the question: “Are you better off now than you were when I was president?” This statement harks back to Ronald Reagan’s iconic question during his victorious 1980 presidential campaign: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”
Trump’s focus on the economy is hardly surprising, as polls consistently show it’s the issue American voters care about the most. A recent poll by The Economist and YouGov placed “inflation/prices” and “jobs and the economy” at the top of voters’ concerns. More critically, these polls reflect widespread dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs, creating a prime opportunity for any presidential challenger.
However, with Kamala Harris stepping in as the Democratic candidate, Trump seems to be struggling to make his economic message resonate. Just a few weeks ago, he stood on stage at the Republican National Convention, seemingly invincible after surviving an assassination attempt and enjoying a surge in the polls. Now, he has lost that lead and appears to be floundering, while Harris, on the other hand, is generating excitement and enthusiasm that Trump finds hard to counter.
One of the most straightforward strategies for Trump would be to remind voters of their discontent with high prices and pin the blame on Harris, tying her to the inflation that has increased the cost of living during her time with President Biden in the White House.
But Trump’s challenge is compounded by the Harris campaign’s strategy to tackle the cost of living head-on. In a recent speech in North Carolina, Harris outlined plans to expand child tax credits, assist first-time homebuyers, and promote affordable housing. She also vowed to address the high cost of groceries by cracking down on “price gouging” and excessive corporate profits. “By any measure, our economy is the strongest in the world,” she stated, acknowledging that many Americans haven’t yet felt this progress in their daily lives.
While Biden and Harris could boast about strong economic indicators, such as robust growth, record job creation, and inflation dipping below 3% for the first time in Biden’s presidency, voters remain fixated on high prices. The public doesn’t focus on inflation rates—they care about the actual prices they encounter daily. Jared Bernstein, chair of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, highlighted this in a July speech: “A central banker wants inflation to get back to target. A shopper wants their old price back.” He noted that when it comes to the economy, “the vibes are off,” and “vibes matter.”
So, could these negative economic “vibes” damage Harris’s campaign? To explore this, I spoke with voters over lunch at a crab shack on the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland. Jeff Tester, who works at a nearby marina, expressed his frustration with rising prices. “I get paid by the hour and work every day to achieve the American dream, but it’s getting harder,” he said, blaming Democratic policies for the struggles of working-class Americans.
While every diner I spoke with complained about inflation, not everyone held Biden or Harris responsible. Dan Nardo, a retired boat broker, believed that factors like the pandemic, oil prices, foreign conflicts, and supply chain disruptions were more to blame for rising costs than the current administration.
His friend Randy Turk, a retired lawyer, suggested that a new administration would likely follow a similar path to reduce inflation, regardless of who wins the election. “It’s not like a different president can really make that much of a difference,” he remarked.
Harris’s relative lack of media attention as vice president, once seen as a weakness, could now work in her favor. Ruth Igielnik, polling editor at the New York Times, noted that voters have largely tied their negative views on the economy to Biden rather than Harris. On the BBC’s Americast podcast, she mentioned that while Trump is still favored on economic issues, his once substantial lead over Biden has shrunk to just about 8 points against Harris. This shift suggests voters aren’t necessarily linking their economic concerns to Harris.
A separate poll conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business even showed Harris holding a narrow lead over Trump regarding trust in handling the economy. It’s no wonder Republicans are urging Trump to focus on the economy instead of personal attacks on Harris.
In a recent speech, Trump admitted he was advised to concentrate on the economy but struggled to stay on topic. “They say it’s the most important subject,” he noted, referring to his strategists, but then he quickly pivoted to immigration, crime, and even Harris’s laugh. It was clear his campaign team was frustrated by his inability to stay focused.
Matt Terrill, former chief of staff for Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign, advised Trump to zero in on the economy and inflation, the issues that resonate most with undecided swing voters in key states. “Stay focused on talking about how you are going to make the lives of Americans better over the next four years,” he urged.
Back in 1992, Democrat strategist Jim Carville famously coined the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid” during Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign. It’s advice that has guided campaigns ever since, but this time, Trump seems to be struggling to follow it. Despite the fact that only 19% of voters believe they are better off now than they were during his presidency, Trump is finding it unusually challenging to stick with the winning message.
