US Election Impact: What It Means for Ukraine, Gaza, and Global Conflict
When President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv in February 2023, the air was thick with tension and air raid sirens echoed as he walked through Ukraine’s capital. This symbolic moment underscored Biden’s stance that America is a guiding force for global democracy.
With the US presidential election just days away, the world watches closely: will Kamala Harris, aiming to maintain Biden’s commitment to global engagement, take the helm? Or will it be Donald Trump, advocating for “Americanism, not globalism,” who shifts America’s role on the world stage?
In an era where America’s influence is questioned, autocratic regimes are strengthening their own alliances, and conflicts rage from Gaza to Ukraine, Washington’s role remains central. Here’s what experts suggest could change, depending on who wins.
Military Power and NATO
“Donald Trump would be Europe’s nightmare,” says Rose Gottemoeller, former NATO deputy secretary-general. NATO’s security relies heavily on US support, with America covering two-thirds of the total defense budgets of all other NATO members. Trump has long pushed NATO countries to meet their spending goals, though his inconsistent rhetoric has left allies wary.
If Harris wins, Gottemoeller believes NATO would remain in “good Washington hands,” continuing support for Ukraine but also encouraging Europe to share more of the defense burden. However, a Republican-led Senate or House may complicate Harris’s efforts, as Congress grows hesitant to fund foreign wars, suggesting more pressure for Kyiv to explore peaceful resolutions.
Conflict Mediation and Peacemaking
The next president faces a global climate of heightened tension and potential power clashes, reminiscent of the Cold War. “The US remains pivotal in peace and security issues,” says Comfort Ero, head of the International Crisis Group, though she notes America’s influence is waning as conflicts grow increasingly complex and intractable.
While Harris would likely continue Biden’s diplomatic strategies, Ero suggests Trump might encourage more unilateral decisions from allies, especially in Israel’s response to Gaza. Trump’s focus on brokering peace may appeal to some, but critics fear his approach could sideline key issues, such as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
US-China Relations
In the economic realm, both Harris and Trump would likely keep a tough stance on China, albeit with different approaches. Trump’s potential 60% tariff on Chinese goods could send economic shockwaves, while his unpredictable diplomacy could complicate relations. Harris, on the other hand, would likely pursue a more measured policy, working with international allies to address the challenges posed by China’s global influence.
Climate Policy
Mary Robinson, chair of The Elders and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, emphasizes the global stakes of the US election, particularly in light of the climate crisis. Trump’s skepticism toward climate policy could hinder progress, with some anticipating he’d pull out of the Paris Agreement again if re-elected. Harris would likely uphold the current administration’s green agenda, but critics argue she needs to take more definitive steps toward aggressive climate action.
Humanitarian Leadership
Finally, the US election has far-reaching humanitarian implications. Martin Griffiths, a veteran UN humanitarian official, stresses the importance of American leadership in global aid efforts. The US has historically been the UN’s largest donor, though Trump’s first term saw funding cuts to several UN agencies. Griffiths warns that a return to Trump’s isolationist policies could deepen global instability.
With the election nearing, the world awaits an answer on whether America will champion collaborative leadership or pivot toward a more insular approach. Regardless of the outcome, the stakes are high, not just for the US, but for the world.
